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Pakistan Women tour of South Africa · 2025/26 · Women
25 Feb 2026 · ODI
Centurion Park · Venue photographRecorded result
South Africa more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
South Africa started on 82%; South Africa batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Laura Wolvaardtcaught · Nashra Sandhu · Sadia Iqbal4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nashra Sandhu · b Sadia Iqbal | 20 | 27 | 4 | 0 | 74.07 |
| Tazmin Britsstumped · Muneeba Ali · Nashra Sandhu 10 fours · 2 sixes | stumped · Muneeba Ali · b Nashra Sandhu | 77 | 62 | 10 | 2 | 124.19 |
| Faye Tunnicliffebowled · Syeda Aroob Shah 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Syeda Aroob Shah | 7 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 36.84 |
| Suné Luuslbw · Syeda Aroob Shah 4 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Syeda Aroob Shah | 57 | 67 | 4 | 0 | 85.07 |
| Annerie Dercksencaught · Diana Baig · Fatima Sana 6 fours · 4 sixes | caught |
South Africa's chances ranged from 82% to 100% during the match (Pakistan: 0% to 18%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 90 |
| 68 |
| 6 |
| 4 |
| 132.35 |
| Sinalo Jaftabowled · Sadia Iqbal 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Sadia Iqbal | 6 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
 Chloe Tryonbowled · Fatima Sana5 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Fatima Sana | 37 | 23 | 5 | 1 | 160.87 |
|---|
| Nadine de Klerkcaught · Sadia Iqbal · Diana Baig 7 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Sadia Iqbal · b Diana Baig | 49 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 188.46 |
|---|
| Nondumiso Shangasenot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 5* | 2 | 1 | 0 | 250.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 8 · noballs: 3 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diana Baig0 maidens · 3 wides · 1 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 82 | 1 | 8.20 | 3 | 1 |
| Fatima Sana0 maidens · 5 wides · 1 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 72 | 2 | 7.20 | 5 | 1 |
| Sadia Iqbal0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 65 | 2 | 6.50 | 0 | 1 |
| Ayesha Zafar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 12.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Syeda Aroob Shah0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 49 | 2 | 4.90 | 0 | 0 |
| Nashra Sandhu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 79 | 1 | 8.78 | 0 | 0 |
1-55 (Laura Wolvaardt, 8.4) · 2-102 (Faye Tunnicliffe, 16.0) · 3-118 (Tazmin Brits, 18.5) · 4-220 (Suné Luus, 37.1) · 5-234 (Sinalo Jafta, 39.2) · 6-296 (Annerie Dercksen, 44.3) · 7-316 (Chloe Tryon, 47.0) · 8-361 (Nadine de Klerk, 50.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 3 | 9/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 14/0 |
| 4 | 10 | 24/0 |
| 5 | 8 | 32/0 |
| 6 | 6 | 38/0 |
| 7 | 9 | 47/0 |
| 8 | 3 | 50/0 |
| 9 | 5 | 55/1 |
| 10 | 9 | 64/1 |
| 11 | 3 | 67/1 |
| 12 | 12 | 79/1 |
| 13 | 3 | 82/1 |
| 14 | 5 | 87/1 |
| 15 | 6 | 93/1 |
| 16 | 9 | 102/2 |
| 17 | 8 | 110/2 |
| 18 | 4 | 114/2 |
| 19 | 5 | 119/3 |
| 20 | 7 | 126/3 |
| 21 | 5 | 131/3 |
| 22 | 6 | 137/3 |
| 23 | 8 | 145/3 |
| 24 | 3 | 148/3 |
| 25 | 7 | 155/3 |
| 26 | 4 | 159/3 |
| 27 | 3 | 162/3 |
| 28 | 4 | 166/3 |
| 29 | 8 | 174/3 |
| 30 | 4 | 178/3 |
| 31 | 11 | 189/3 |
| 32 | 8 | 197/3 |
| 33 | 5 | 202/3 |
| 34 | 4 | 206/3 |
| 35 | 7 | 213/3 |
| 36 | 3 | 216/3 |
| 37 | 4 | 220/3 |
| 38 | 4 | 224/4 |
| 39 | 10 | 234/4 |
| 40 | 3 | 237/5 |
| 41 | 7 | 244/5 |
| 42 | 14 | 258/5 |
| 43 | 12 | 270/5 |
| 44 | 19 | 289/5 |
| 45 | 9 | 298/6 |
| 46 | 7 | 305/6 |
| 47 | 11 | 316/7 |
| 48 | 15 | 331/7 |
| 49 | 14 | 345/7 |
| 50 | 16 | 361/8 |
Laura Wolvaardt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nonkululeko Mlaba: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Chloe Tryon: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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