**Rangiri Dambulla International Stadium**
Photo: Wss ltd
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

Women's Asia Cup · 2024 · Women

BangladeshversusIndia

26 Jul 2024 · T20

Rangiri Dambulla International Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

India won by 10 wickets

Bangladesh20.0 overs80/8 India11.0 overs83/0 Rangiri Dambulla International Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

India more likely to win

11%Bangladesh89%India

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than Bangladesh (1,691 vs 1,444 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, India won 9 and Bangladesh won 1

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bangladesh started on 10%; Bangladesh batted first.

Bangladesh’s chance of winning (%) · India is the rest

Bangladesh's chances ranged from 0% to 13% during the match (India: 87% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.3: Renuka Singh to Dilara Akter, six by Dilara Akter. Bangladesh up from 10% to 13%.
0.4: Renuka Singh to Dilara Akter, Dilara Akter out. India up from 87% to 91%.
2.6: Renuka Singh to Ishma Tanjim, Ishma Tanjim out. India up from 90% to 93%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bangladesh80/8 India83/0

Innings 1

Bangladesh

80/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bangladesh batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Dilara Aktercaught · Uma Chetry · Renuka Singh 0 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Uma Chetry · b Renuka Singh	6	4	0	1	150.00
Murshida Khatuncaught · Shafali Verma · Renuka Singh 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Shafali Verma · b Renuka Singh	4	9	0	0	44.44
Ishma Tanjimcaught · Tanuja Kanwar · Renuka Singh 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Tanuja Kanwar · b Renuka Singh	8	10	2	0	80.00
Nigar Sultanacaught · Deepti Sharma · Radha Yadav 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Deepti Sharma · b Radha Yadav	32	51	2	0	62.75

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Renuka Singh1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	10	3	2.50	1	0
Pooja Vastrakar0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	0	25	1	6.25	0	1
Tanuja Kanwar0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	16	0	4.00	1	0
Deepti Sharma0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	14	1	3.50	0	0
Radha Yadav1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	14	3	3.50	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	7	7/1
2	9	16/1
3	1	17/2
4	2	19/2
5	2	21/3
6	4	25/3
7	0	25/3
8	3	28/3
9	2	30/3
10	2	32/4
11	1	33/5
12	4	37/5
13	6	43/5
14	1	44/6
15	5	49/6
16	4	53/6
17	8	61/6
18	6	67/6
19	13	80/6
20	0	80/8

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