PakistanversusNew Zealand

21 Jan 2024 · T20

Hagley Oval, Christchurch · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Pakistan won by 42 runs

Pakistan20.0 overs134/8 New Zealand17.2 overs92/10 Hagley Oval, Christchurch ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

New Zealand more likely to win

18%Pakistan82%New Zealand

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, New Zealand rate stronger than Pakistan (1,680 vs 1,490 on our results rating)
New Zealand are playing at home in New Zealand
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, New Zealand won 6 and Pakistan won 4

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Pakistan started on 17%; Pakistan batted first.

Pakistan’s chance of winning (%) · New Zealand is the rest

Pakistan's chances ranged from 6% to 100% during the match (New Zealand: 0% to 94%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 10.1: Iftikhar Ahmed to MS Chapman, MS Chapman out. Pakistan up from 20% to 35%.
2nd inns 12.5: Iftikhar Ahmed to TL Seifert, TL Seifert out. Pakistan up from 44% to 65%.
2nd inns 13.4: Usama Mir to MJ Santner, MJ Santner out. Pakistan up from 62% to 83%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Pakistan134/8 New Zealand92/10

Innings 1

Pakistan

134/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Pakistan batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Haseebullah Khancaught · Glenn Phillips · Tim Southee 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Glenn Phillips · b Tim Southee	0	3	0	0	0.00
Mohammad Rizwancaught · Rachin Ravindra · Matt Henry 4 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Rachin Ravindra · b Matt Henry	38	38	4	0	100.00
Mohammad Babar Azamcaught · Glenn Phillips · Ish Sodhi 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Glenn Phillips · b Ish Sodhi	13	24	1	0	54.17
Fakhar Zamancaught · Lockie Ferguson · Tim Southee 1 fours · 4 sixes	caught · Lockie Ferguson

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls
Tim Southee1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	19	2	4.75
Matt Henry0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	30	2	7.50
Mitchell Santner0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	30	0	7.50
Lockie Ferguson0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	25	2	6.25
Ish Sodhi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	22	2	5.50

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	0	0/1
2	2	2/1
3	2	4/1
4	11	15/1
5	5	20/1
6	9	29/1
7	4	33/1
8	6	39/1
9	12	51/1
10	2	53/2
11	14	67/2
12	13	80/2
13	8	88/3
14	3	91/4
15	8	99/5
16	3	102/5
17	2	104/6
18	9	113/6
19	15	128/7
20	6	134/8

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