**Kingsmead, Durban**
Photo: The original uploader was PaddyBriggs at English Wikipedia.
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SA20 · 2024/25 · Men

Durban's Super GiantsversusPretoria Capitals

10 Jan 2025 · T20

Kingsmead, Durban · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Durban's Super Giants won by 2 runs

Durban's Super Giants20.0 overs209/4 Pretoria Capitals20.0 overs207/6 Kingsmead, Durban ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Durban's Super Giants started on 55%; Durban's Super Giants batted first.

Durban's Super Giants’s chance of winning (%) · Pretoria Capitals is the rest

Durban's Super Giants's chances ranged from 2% to 87% during the match (Pretoria Capitals: 13% to 98%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 18.4: KA Maharaj to LS Livingstone, LS Livingstone out. Durban's Super Giants up from 29% to 52%.
2nd inns 19.4: Naveen-ul-Haq to K Verreynne, four by K Verreynne. Pretoria Capitals up from 24% to 48%.
2nd inns 19.6: Naveen-ul-Haq to S Stolk, 1 run to S Stolk. Durban's Super Giants up from 59% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Durban's Super Giants209/4 Pretoria Capitals207/6

Innings 1