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Women's T20 Quadrangular Series (in Hong Kong) · 2024/25 · Women
7 Dec 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Thailand more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Thailand started on 81%; Thailand batted first.
Thailand's chances ranged from 65% to 100% during the match (China: 0% to 35%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Suleeporn Laomirun out · Zi Mei, Cai Yuzhi · Mengting Liu0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Zi Mei, Cai Yuzhi | 3 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 14.29 |
 Nannapat Koncharoenkaistumped · Zi Mei · Mengting Liu3 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Zi Mei · b Mengting Liu | 23 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 135.29 |
| Aphisara Suwanchonrathibowled · Cai Yuzhi 3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Cai Yuzhi | 18 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 94.74 |
| Phannita Mayastumped · Zi Mei · Mengting Liu 3 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Zi Mei · b Mengting Liu | 27 | 29 | 3 | 0 | 93.10 |
| bowled · b Mengting Liu |
| 3 |
| 8 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 37.50 |
| S Khiaotocaught and bowled · Mengting Liu 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Mengting Liu | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Rosenanee Kanohbowled · Yang Shen 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Yang Shen | 5 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 62.50 |
|---|
| N Chaihancaught · Jiaping Li · Cai Yuzhi 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jiaping Li · b Cai Yuzhi | 6 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 85.71 |
|---|
| T Putthawongnot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 8* | 7 | 1 | 0 | 114.29 |
|---|
 Onnicha Kamchomphubowled · Cai Yuzhi0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Cai Yuzhi | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Chayanisa Phengpaennot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 1 | 1 | 0 | 400.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 17 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ma Ruike0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 8.33 | 6 | 0 |
| Xu Qian1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 2.25 | 1 | 0 |
| Wang Huiying0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 9.50 | 4 | 0 |
| Mengting Liu0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 16 | 4 | 4.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Cai Yuzhi0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 28 | 3 | 7.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Yang Shen0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 18 | 1 | 6.00 | 3 | 0 |
1-34 (Nannapat Koncharoenkai, 6.2) · 2-38 (Suleeporn Laomi, 6.4) · 3-63 (Aphisara Suwanchonrathi, 12.0) · 4-85 (Chanida Sutthiruang, 15.1) · 5-85 (S Khiaoto, 15.2) · 6-91 (Rosenanee Kanoh, 16.4) · 7-97 (Phannita Maya, 17.4) · 8-107 (N Chaihan, 19.1) · 9-113 (Onnicha Kamchomphu, 19.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 7/0 |
| 2 | 3 | 10/0 |
| 3 | 9 | 19/0 |
| 4 | 0 | 19/0 |
| 5 | 13 | 32/0 |
| 6 | 1 | 33/0 |
| 7 | 5 | 38/2 |
| 8 | 8 | 46/2 |
| 9 | 2 | 48/2 |
| 10 | 3 | 51/2 |
| 11 | 6 | 57/2 |
| 12 | 6 | 63/3 |
| 13 | 5 | 68/3 |
| 14 | 10 | 78/3 |
| 15 | 6 | 84/3 |
| 16 | 2 | 86/5 |
| 17 | 7 | 93/6 |
| 18 | 7 | 100/7 |
| 19 | 6 | 106/7 |
| 20 | 11 | 117/9 |
Nannapat Koncharoenkai: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Chanida Sutthiruang: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Onnicha Kamchomphu: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Suleeporn Laomi: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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