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Photo: Birdy10
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
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Netherlands Tri-Nation T20I Series · 2024 · Men
27 Aug 2024 · T20
Sportpark Westvliet, The Hague · Venue photographRecorded result
United States of America more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
United States of America started on 67%; United States of America batted first.
United States of America's chances ranged from 62% to 100% during the match (Canada: 0% to 38%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monank Patelcaught · Saad Bin Zafar · Dillon Heyliger 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Saad Bin Zafar · b Dillon Heyliger | 16 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 88.89 |
| Saiteja Mukkamallacaught · Parveen Kumar (2) · Saad Bin Zafar 8 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Parveen Kumar (2) · b Saad Bin Zafar | 52 | 27 | 8 | 1 | 192.59 |
| Andries Gouscaught and bowled · Saad Bin Zafar 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught and bowled · b Saad Bin Zafar | 21 | 26 | 1 | 1 | 80.77 |
| Aaron Jonesstumped · Shreyas Movva · Saad Bin Zafar 0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Shreyas Movva · b Saad Bin Zafar | 5 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 62.50 |
| Harmeet Singhcaught and bowled · Kaleem Sana 0 fours · 2 sixes | caught and bowled · b Kaleem Sana | 24 |
| 15 |
| 0 |
| 2 |
| 160.00 |
| Nitish Kumarcaught · Saad Bin Zafar · Dillon Heyliger 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Saad Bin Zafar · b Dillon Heyliger | 14 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 116.67 |
|---|
| Shayan Jahangirnot out 1 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 15* | 8 | 1 | 1 | 187.50 |
|---|
| Shadley van Schalkwyknot out 0 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 15* | 7 | 0 | 1 | 214.29 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 0 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaleem Sana0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 31 | 1 | 7.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Dillon Heyliger0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 50 | 2 | 12.50 | 0 | 1 |
| Harsh Thaker0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 11.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Parveen Kumar (2)0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Saad Bin Zafar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 25 | 3 | 6.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Akhil Kumar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 6.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-57 (Monank Patel, 5.5) · 2-90 (Saiteja Mukkamalla, 10.0) · 3-98 (Andries Gous, 12.4) · 4-109 (Aaron Jones, 14.1) · 5-134 (Nitish Kumar, 17.1) · 6-140 (Harmeet Singh, 18.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 13 | 17/0 |
| 3 | 13 | 30/0 |
| 4 | 12 | 42/0 |
| 5 | 4 | 46/0 |
| 6 | 12 | 58/1 |
| 7 | 2 | 60/1 |
| 8 | 8 | 68/1 |
| 9 | 12 | 80/1 |
| 10 | 10 | 90/2 |
| 11 | 4 | 94/2 |
| 12 | 2 | 96/2 |
| 13 | 3 | 99/3 |
| 14 | 10 | 109/3 |
| 15 | 4 | 113/4 |
| 16 | 11 | 124/4 |
| 17 | 10 | 134/4 |
| 18 | 5 | 139/5 |
| 19 | 8 | 147/6 |
| 20 | 21 | 168/6 |
Saad Bin Zafar: Apnagm · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
