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Nordic Women T20 Cup · 2026 · Women
30 Aug 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Germany more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Germany started on 55%; Germany batted first.
Germany's chances ranged from 36% to 100% during the match (Denmark: 0% to 64%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W Hornero-Garciacaught · Thea Larsen · D Golechha 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Thea Larsen · b D Golechha | 14 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 93.33 |
| A Kohlicaught · S Ostergaard · Frida Larsen 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · S Ostergaard · b Frida Larsen | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16.67 |
| A Kanukuntlarun out · S Ostergaard, ML Karlsen · Thea Larsen 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · S Ostergaard, ML Karlsen | 11 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 64.71 |
| Karthika Vijayaraghavancaught · ML Karlsen · Frida Larsen 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · ML Karlsen · b Frida Larsen | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Aanvi Kishorebowled · Frida Larsen 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Frida Larsen | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
| S Kolcharamrun out · Thea Larsen, ML Karlsen · NP Dalgaard 4 fours · 0 sixes |
|---|
| run out · Thea Larsen, ML Karlsen |
| 41 |
| 36 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 113.89 |
| V Stollebowled · L Ostergaard 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b L Ostergaard | 19 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 79.17 |
|---|
| Rameesha Shahidrun out · Thea Larsen, ML Karlsen · S Munagala 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Thea Larsen, ML Karlsen | 7 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 70.00 |
|---|
| Ashwini Balajirun out · Thea Larsen, S Munagala · S Munagala 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Thea Larsen, S Munagala | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 200.00 |
|---|
| ST Kannannot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 3 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 9 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D Golechha0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 27 | 1 | 6.75 | 2 | 0 |
| Frida Larsen0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 17 | 3 | 4.25 | 2 | 0 |
| Thea Larsen0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 6.25 | 2 | 0 |
| S Munagala0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 7.00 | 1 | 0 |
| C Ostergaard0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 8.00 | 1 | 0 |
| NP Dalgaard0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 4.67 | 1 | 0 |
| L Ostergaard0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-9 (A Kohli, 1.5) · 2-20 (W Hornero-Garcia, 4.2) · 3-31 (Karthika Vijayaraghavan, 5.2) · 4-33 (Aanvi Kishore, 6.0) · 5-60 (A Kanukuntla, 10.3) · 6-101 (S Kolcharam, 17.1) · 7-107 (V Stolle, 18.4) · 8-118 (Ashwini Balaji, 19.5) · 9-119 (Rameesha Shahid, 20.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 3 | 9/1 |
| 3 | 6 | 15/1 |
| 4 | 5 | 20/1 |
| 5 | 10 | 30/2 |
| 6 | 3 | 33/4 |
| 7 | 3 | 36/4 |
| 8 | 7 | 43/4 |
| 9 | 10 | 53/4 |
| 10 | 4 | 57/4 |
| 11 | 6 | 63/5 |
| 12 | 8 | 71/5 |
| 13 | 8 | 79/5 |
| 14 | 6 | 85/5 |
| 15 | 5 | 90/5 |
| 16 | 3 | 93/5 |
| 17 | 7 | 100/5 |
| 18 | 5 | 105/6 |
| 19 | 4 | 109/7 |
| 20 | 10 | 119/9 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.