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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Africa Sub Regional Qualifier C · 2026/27 · Men
21 Oct 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Nigeria more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Zambia started on 19%; Zambia batted first.
Zambia's chances ranged from 0% to 48% during the match (Nigeria: 52% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vasmiakram Chandbowled · Abdullahi Ismail 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Abdullahi Ismail | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
| Ismail Karacaught · K Boniface · Abdullahi Ismail 6 fours · 7 sixes | caught · K Boniface · b Abdullahi Ismail | 82 | 44 | 6 | 7 | 186.36 |
| JV Chandcaught · Selim Salau · Chima Akachukwu 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Selim Salau · b Chima Akachukwu | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 30.00 |
| Jakir Patelcaught · Isaac Okpe · Sylvester Okpe 3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Isaac Okpe · b Sylvester Okpe | 21 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 131.25 |
| Zakir Husain Patelstumped · Ali Rahmon · K Boniface 0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Ali Rahmon · b K Boniface | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 30.00 |
| Shadreck Malamacaught · R Abdulkareem · Peter Aho 0 fours · 0 sixes |
|---|
| caught · R Abdulkareem · b Peter Aho |
| 4 |
| 12 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 33.33 |
| Ayaz Dadabhaicaught · K Boniface · Isaac Okpe 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · K Boniface · b Isaac Okpe | 6 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 46.15 |
|---|
| R Lungucaught · Isaac Danladi · Abdullahi Ismail 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Isaac Danladi · b Abdullahi Ismail | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
|---|
| Javid Patelnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 4 | 0 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
| Joshep Zulucaught · Abdullahi Ismail · Isaac Okpe 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Abdullahi Ismail · b Isaac Okpe | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Soyeb Pendinot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 2 | 1 | 0 | 200.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 5 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 4 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Aho0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 28 | 1 | 7.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Abdullahi Ismail0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 2.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaac Okpe0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 25 | 2 | 6.25 | 1 | 1 |
| Chima Akachukwu0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 26 | 1 | 13.00 | 1 | 1 |
| Sylvester Okpe0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 26 | 1 | 8.67 | 1 | 0 |
| R Abdulkareem0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.4 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 12.00 | 0 | 0 |
| K Boniface0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.75 | 0 | 0 |
1-15 (Vasmiakram Chand, 1.4) · 2-27 (JV Chand, 4.1) · 3-69 (Jakir Patel, 8.4) · 4-82 (Zakir Husain Patel, 11.3) · 5-122 (Ismail Kara, 15.1) · 6-126 (Shadreck Malama, 16.2) · 7-129 (R Lungu, 17.1) · 8-138 (Ayaz Dadabhai, 19.3) · 9-138 (Joshep Zulu, 19.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15 | 15/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 20/1 |
| 3 | 6 | 26/1 |
| 4 | 1 | 27/1 |
| 5 | 7 | 34/2 |
| 6 | 5 | 39/2 |
| 7 | 23 | 62/2 |
| 8 | 4 | 66/2 |
| 9 | 5 | 71/3 |
| 10 | 3 | 74/3 |
| 11 | 8 | 82/3 |
| 12 | 1 | 83/4 |
| 13 | 13 | 96/4 |
| 14 | 17 | 113/4 |
| 15 | 9 | 122/4 |
| 16 | 3 | 125/5 |
| 17 | 4 | 129/6 |
| 18 | 2 | 131/7 |
| 19 | 6 | 137/7 |
| 20 | 5 | 142/9 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.