Central DistrictsversusAuckland

16 Jan 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Central Districts won by 18 runs

Central Districts20.0 overs146/5 Auckland20.0 overs128/8 Eden Park Outer Oval, Auckland ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Central Districts started on 42%; Central Districts batted first.

Central Districts’s chance of winning (%) · Auckland is the rest

Central Districts's chances ranged from 43% to 100% during the match (Auckland: 0% to 58%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 0.4: CL Green to IC Gaze, IC Gaze out. Central Districts up from 57% to 68%.
2nd inns 8.2: PA Chatterji to S Shahri, S Shahri out. Central Districts up from 46% to 58%.
2nd inns 8.6: PA Chatterji to P Catton, P Catton out. Central Districts up from 59% to 71%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Central Districts146/5 Auckland128/8

Innings 1