NetherlandsversusNepal

17 Feb 2024 · ODI

Tribhuvan University International Cricket Ground, Kirtipur · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Nepal won by 9 wickets

Netherlands39.0 overs137/10 Nepal15.2 overs141/1 Tribhuvan University International Cricket Ground, Kirtipur ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Nepal more likely to win

38%Netherlands62%Nepal

Why

Nepal are playing at home in Nepal
On results in ODIs so far, Nepal rate stronger than Netherlands (1,469 vs 1,423 on our results rating)
In the last 1 ODIs between these sides, Netherlands won 1 and Nepal won 0

Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Netherlands started on 35%; Netherlands batted first.

Netherlands’s chance of winning (%) · Nepal is the rest

Netherlands's chances ranged from 0% to 35% during the match (Nepal: 65% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.3: Sompal Kami to M Levitt, M Levitt out. Nepal up from 65% to 77%.
5.6: LN Rajbanshi to MP O'Dowd, MP O'Dowd out. Nepal up from 69% to 80%.
15.4: LN Rajbanshi to SA Engelbrecht, SA Engelbrecht out. Nepal up from 67% to 77%.

Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Netherlands137/10 Nepal141/1

Innings 1

Netherlands

137/1039.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Netherlands batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Michael Levittcaught · D Khanal · Sompal Kami 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · D Khanal · b Sompal Kami	0	3	0	0	0.00
Max O'Dowdrun out · B Sharki, Lalit Rajbanshi · Lalit Rajbanshi 0 fours · 1 sixes	run out · B Sharki, Lalit Rajbanshi	10	21	0	1	47.62
Sybrand Engelbrechtcaught · Anil Sah · Lalit Rajbanshi 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Anil Sah · b Lalit Rajbanshi	23	35	3	0	65.71
Bas de Leedebowled · Lalit Rajbanshi 3 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b Lalit Rajbanshi	27	44	3	1	61.36
Scott Edwardslbw · Kushal Bhurtel 1 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Sompal Kami2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	7.0	2	24	1	3.43	0
Lalit Rajbanshi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	10.0	0	32	2	3.20	0
Kushal Malla1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	7.0	1	19	0	2.71	0
Gulsan Jha0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	12	0	6.00	2
Dipendra Singh Airee0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	5.0	0	27	0	5.40	5
Kushal Bhurtel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	7.0	0	20	4	2.86	0
Rohit Kumar0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	3	1	3.00	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/1
2	1	3/1
3	0	3/1
4	2	5/1
5	7	12/1
6	6	18/2
7	4	22/2
8	4	26/2
9	0	26/2
10	2	28/2
11	6	34/2
12	1	35/2
13	6	41/2
14	9	50/2
15	4	54/2
16	2	56/3
17	4	60/3
18	1	61/3
19	5	66/3
20	6	72/4
21	4	76/4
22	5	81/4
23	4	85/4
24	0	85/4
25	11	96/4
26	2	98/5
27	2	100/6
28	3	103/7
29	5	108/7
30	3	111/7
31	6	117/7
32	2	119/7
33	3	122/8
34	4	126/8
35	1	127/9
36	1	128/9
37	2	130/9
38	6	136/9
39	1	137/10

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