Lahore QalandarsversusMultan Sultans

21 Feb 2024 · T20

Multan Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Multan Sultans won by 5 wickets

Lahore Qalandars20.0 overs166/5 Multan Sultans19.0 overs170/5 Multan Cricket Stadium ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Lahore Qalandars started on 45%; Lahore Qalandars batted first.

Lahore Qalandars’s chance of winning (%) · Multan Sultans is the rest

Lahore Qalandars's chances ranged from 0% to 60% during the match (Multan Sultans: 41% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 2.5: Shaheen Shah Afridi to RR Hendricks, RR Hendricks out. Lahore Qalandars up from 42% to 58%.
2nd inns 7.6: GF Linde to Yasir Khan, Yasir Khan out. Lahore Qalandars up from 44% to 59%.
2nd inns 17.4: Shaheen Shah Afridi to DJ Willey, six by DJ Willey. Multan Sultans up from 62% to 78%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Lahore Qalandars166/5 Multan Sultans170/5

Innings 1