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Photo: Krish Dulal
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Canada tour of Nepal · 2023/24 · Men
10 Feb 2024 · ODI
Tribhuvan University International Cricket Ground, Kirtipur · Venue photographRecorded result
Nepal more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Canada started on 21%; Canada batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Johnsonrun out · Aasif Sheikh, B Sharki · Kushal Malla 10 fours · 2 sixes | run out · Aasif Sheikh, B Sharki | 65 | 62 | 10 | 2 | 104.84 |
| Navneet Dhaliwalcaught · Aasif Sheikh · Aakash Chand 8 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aasif Sheikh · b Aakash Chand | 46 | 60 | 8 | 0 | 76.67 |
| Pargat Singhcaught · Sompal Kami · Rohit Kumar 6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sompal Kami · b Rohit Kumar | 38 | 38 | 6 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Nicholas Kirtonstumped · Aasif Sheikh · Rohit Kumar 2 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Aasif Sheikh · b Rohit Kumar | 20 | 29 | 2 | 0 | 68.97 |
| Harsh Thakercaught · Aasif Sheikh · Surya Tamang 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aasif Sheikh · b Surya Tamang | 3 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 27.27 |
Canada's chances ranged from 0% to 58% during the match (Nepal: 42% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| Dilpreet Bajwabowled · Kushal Malla 2 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Kushal Malla | 19 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 95.00 |
|---|
| Shreyas Movvacaught · B Sharki · Sompal Kami 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · B Sharki · b Sompal Kami | 40 | 42 | 4 | 0 | 95.24 |
|---|
 Saad Bin Zafarcaught · Pawan Sarraf · Kushal Malla0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Pawan Sarraf · b Kushal Malla | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16.67 |
|---|
| Shahid Ahmadzaibowled · Pawan Sarraf 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Pawan Sarraf | 13 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 76.47 |
|---|
| Uday Bhagwannot out 1 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 20* | 15 | 1 | 1 | 133.33 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 6 · wides: 13 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sompal Kami0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 49 | 1 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
| R Dhakal0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 41 | 0 | 5.86 | 0 | 0 |
 Kushal Malla0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 51 | 2 | 5.10 | 2 | 0 |
| Surya Tamang1 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 46 | 1 | 4.60 | 5 | 0 |
| Aakash Chand0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 31 | 1 | 6.20 | 2 | 0 |
| Pawan Sarraf0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 28 | 1 | 9.33 | 3 | 0 |
 Rohit Kumar0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 32 | 2 | 4.00 | 1 | 0 |
1-94 (Navneet Dhaliwal, 18.2) · 2-126 (Aaron Johnson, 22.2) · 3-179 (Pargat Singh, 31.2) · 4-180 (Nicholas Kirton, 31.5) · 5-193 (Harsh Thaker, 34.5) · 6-212 (Dilpreet Bajwa, 38.4) · 7-216 (Saad Bin Zafar, 40.4) · 8-239 (Shahid Ahmadzai, 44.5) · 9-285 (Shreyas Movva, 50.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 12/0 |
| 3 | 13 | 25/0 |
| 4 | 1 | 26/0 |
| 5 | 4 | 30/0 |
| 6 | 5 | 35/0 |
| 7 | 5 | 40/0 |
| 8 | 2 | 42/0 |
| 9 | 4 | 46/0 |
| 10 | 10 | 56/0 |
| 11 | 8 | 64/0 |
| 12 | 5 | 69/0 |
| 13 | 4 | 73/0 |
| 14 | 2 | 75/0 |
| 15 | 6 | 81/0 |
| 16 | 1 | 82/0 |
| 17 | 7 | 89/0 |
| 18 | 5 | 94/0 |
| 19 | 6 | 100/1 |
| 20 | 0 | 100/1 |
| 21 | 8 | 108/1 |
| 22 | 12 | 120/1 |
| 23 | 8 | 128/2 |
| 24 | 12 | 140/2 |
| 25 | 4 | 144/2 |
| 26 | 11 | 155/2 |
| 27 | 8 | 163/2 |
| 28 | 1 | 164/2 |
| 29 | 6 | 170/2 |
| 30 | 2 | 172/2 |
| 31 | 7 | 179/2 |
| 32 | 1 | 180/4 |
| 33 | 6 | 186/4 |
| 34 | 2 | 188/4 |
| 35 | 5 | 193/5 |
| 36 | 2 | 195/5 |
| 37 | 3 | 198/5 |
| 38 | 13 | 211/5 |
| 39 | 1 | 212/6 |
| 40 | 3 | 215/6 |
| 41 | 2 | 217/7 |
| 42 | 8 | 225/7 |
| 43 | 6 | 231/7 |
| 44 | 4 | 235/7 |
| 45 | 5 | 240/8 |
| 46 | 15 | 255/8 |
| 47 | 5 | 260/8 |
| 48 | 8 | 268/8 |
| 49 | 10 | 278/8 |
| 50 | 7 | 285/9 |
Sompal Kami: सरोज कुमार ढकाल · CC BY-SA 3.0
Rohit Kumar: Cricnepal · CC BY-SA 4.0
Saad Bin Zafar: Apnagm · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kushal Malla: Hamro Khelkud · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
