ScotlandversusEngland

14 Feb 2026 · T20

Eden Gardens, Kolkata · Venue photograph

Recorded result

England won by 5 wickets

Scotland19.4 overs152/10 England18.2 overs155/5 Eden Gardens, Kolkata ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

England more likely to win

20%Scotland80%England

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, England rate stronger than Scotland (1,743 vs 1,515 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Scotland started on 18%; Scotland batted first.

Scotland’s chance of winning (%) · England is the rest

Scotland's chances ranged from 0% to 28% during the match (England: 72% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2.3: JC Archer to HG Munsey, HG Munsey out. England up from 77% to 85%.
12.4: LA Dawson to TC Bruce, TC Bruce out. England up from 72% to 78%.
13.1: AU Rashid to RD Berrington, RD Berrington out. England up from 78% to 84%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Scotland152/10 England155/5

Innings 1

Scotland

152/1019.4 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Scotland batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
George Munseycaught · Tom Banton · Jofra Archer 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Tom Banton · b Jofra Archer	4	6	1	0	66.67
Michael Jonescaught · Jacob Bethell · Sam Curran 5 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Jacob Bethell · b Sam Curran	33	20	5	1	165.00
Brandon McMullencaught · Philip Salt · Jofra Archer 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Philip Salt · b Jofra Archer	0	2	0	0	0.00
Richie Berringtonlbw · Adil Rashid 5 fours · 2 sixes	lbw · b Adil Rashid	49	32	5	2	153.13
Tom Brucecaught · Sam Curran · Liam Dawson 1 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Sam Curran

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Jofra Archer0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	24	2	6.00	2
Jamie Overton0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	23	1	5.75	0
Sam Curran0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.4	33	1	9.00	1
Adil Rashid0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	36	3	9.00	1
Liam Dawson0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	34	2	8.50	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	6	6/0
2	7	13/0
3	5	18/2
4	7	25/2
5	3	28/2
6	14	42/3
7	8	50/3
8	9	59/3
9	18	77/3
10	13	90/3
11	7	97/3
12	8	105/3
13	10	115/4
14	8	123/5
15	2	125/6
16	2	127/8
17	11	138/8
18	10	148/8
19	2	150/9
20	2	152/10

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