JapanversusSaudi Arabia

9 Feb 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Saudi Arabia won by 10 wickets

Japan20.0 overs97/8 Saudi Arabia9.0 overs98/0 Terdthai Cricket Ground, Bangkok ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Saudi Arabia more likely to win

46%Japan54%Saudi Arabia

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Saudi Arabia rate stronger than Japan (1,453 vs 1,426 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Japan started on 44%; Japan batted first.

Japan’s chance of winning (%) · Saudi Arabia is the rest

Japan's chances ranged from 0% to 45% during the match (Saudi Arabia: 56% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.4: Ishtiaq Ahmad to L Yamamoto-Lake, L Yamamoto-Lake out. Saudi Arabia up from 58% to 68%.
2.4: Ishtiaq Ahmad to K Kadowaki-Fleming, K Kadowaki-Fleming out. Saudi Arabia up from 71% to 79%.
7.1: Usman Najeeb to KH Abe, KH Abe out. Saudi Arabia up from 74% to 80%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Japan97/8 Saudi Arabia98/0

Innings 1

Japan

97/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Japan batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
L Yamamoto-Lakebowled · Ishtiaq Ahmad 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Ishtiaq Ahmad	0	4	0	0	0.00
KH Abebowled · Usman Najeeb 2 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Usman Najeeb	15	24	2	0	62.50
Kendel Kadowaki-Flemingcaught · Usman Najeeb · Ishtiaq Ahmad 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Usman Najeeb · b Ishtiaq Ahmad	1	4	0	0	25.00
A Patmorecaught · Haseeb Ghafoor · Abdul Waheed 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Haseeb Ghafoor · b Abdul Waheed	19	22	2	0	86.36
S Ravichandranbowled · Hisham Sheikh 2 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Hisham Sheikh	16	18	2	0	88.89

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Ishtiaq Ahmad1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	15	3	3.75	0
Atif-Ur-Rehman1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	22	0	5.50	1
Usman Najeeb0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	13	3	3.25	0
Hisham Sheikh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	23	1	5.75	0
Waji Ul Hassan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	10	0	5.00	0
Abdul Waheed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	10	1	10.00	0
Usman Khalid0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	1	0	1.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	0	0/1
2	0	0/1
3	4	4/2
4	11	15/2
5	5	20/2
6	4	24/2
7	2	26/2
8	3	29/3
9	6	35/3
10	4	39/3
11	7	46/4
12	6	52/4
13	9	61/4
14	10	71/5
15	1	72/5
16	5	77/5
17	7	84/6
18	4	88/6
19	2	90/8
20	7	97/8

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