Rajshahi WarriorsversusChattogram Royals

20 Jan 2026 · T20

Shere Bangla National Stadium, Mirpur · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Chattogram Royals won by 6 wickets

Rajshahi Warriors20.0 overs133/10 Chattogram Royals19.3 overs134/4 Shere Bangla National Stadium, Mirpur ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Rajshahi Warriors started on 52%; Rajshahi Warriors batted first.

Rajshahi Warriors’s chance of winning (%) · Chattogram Royals is the rest

Rajshahi Warriors's chances ranged from 3% to 59% during the match (Chattogram Royals: 41% to 97%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 18.1: B Fernando to Mahedi Hasan, six by Mahedi Hasan. Chattogram Royals up from 85% to 95%.
2nd inns 18.5: B Fernando to Mirza Baig, Mirza Baig out. Rajshahi Warriors up from 9% to 21%.
2nd inns 19.2: R Mondol to Mahedi Hasan, six by Mahedi Hasan. Chattogram Royals up from 70% to 97%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Rajshahi Warriors133/10 Chattogram Royals134/4

Innings 1