Antigua and Barbuda FalconsversusBarbados Royals

1 Sept 2024 · T20

Sir Vivian Richards Stadium, North Sound, Antigua · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Barbados Royals won by 9 wickets

Antigua and Barbuda Falcons20.0 overs145/9 Barbados Royals15.3 overs149/1 Sir Vivian Richards Stadium, North Sound, Antigua ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Antigua and Barbuda Falcons started on 45%; Antigua and Barbuda Falcons batted first.

Antigua and Barbuda Falcons’s chance of winning (%) · Barbados Royals is the rest

Antigua and Barbuda Falcons's chances ranged from 0% to 54% during the match (Barbados Royals: 46% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.4: JO Holder to KHM James, KHM James out. Barbados Royals up from 49% to 58%.
4.4: OC McCoy to Fakhar Zaman, Fakhar Zaman out. Barbados Royals up from 46% to 55%.
10.5: M Theekshana to SK Springer, SK Springer out. Barbados Royals up from 60% to 70%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Antigua and Barbuda Falcons145/9 Barbados Royals149/1

Innings 1