**Centurion Park**
Photo: shodan
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY 2.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

SA20 · 2024/25 · Men

Sunrisers Eastern CapeversusPretoria Capitals

14 Jan 2025 · T20

Centurion Park · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Pretoria Capitals won by 6 wickets

Sunrisers Eastern Cape19.4 overs113/10 Pretoria Capitals16.0 overs115/4 Centurion Park ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Sunrisers Eastern Cape started on 50%; Sunrisers Eastern Cape batted first.

Sunrisers Eastern Cape’s chance of winning (%) · Pretoria Capitals is the rest

Sunrisers Eastern Cape's chances ranged from 0% to 51% during the match (Pretoria Capitals: 49% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.6: E Bosch to Z Crawley, Z Crawley out. Pretoria Capitals up from 50% to 62%.
1.2: DM Dupavillon to DG Bedingham, DG Bedingham out. Pretoria Capitals up from 62% to 74%.
1.3: DM Dupavillon to AK Markram, AK Markram out. Pretoria Capitals up from 74% to 90%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Sunrisers Eastern Cape113/10 Pretoria Capitals115/4

Innings 1