NepalversusWest Indies

27 Sept 2025 · T20

Sharjah Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Nepal won by 19 runs

Nepal20.0 overs148/8 West Indies20.0 overs129/9 Sharjah Cricket Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Nepal more likely to win

65%Nepal35%West Indies

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Nepal rate stronger than West Indies (1,559 vs 1,452 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Nepal started on 62%; Nepal batted first.

Nepal’s chance of winning (%) · West Indies is the rest

Nepal's chances ranged from 37% to 100% during the match (West Indies: 0% to 63%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 7.4: RK Paudel to J Andrew, J Andrew out. Nepal up from 48% to 63%.
2nd inns 8.5: LN Rajbanshi to AA Jangoo, AA Jangoo out. Nepal up from 60% to 76%.
2nd inns 12.2: K Bhurtel to KU Carty, KU Carty out. Nepal up from 77% to 90%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Nepal148/8 West Indies129/9

Innings 1

Nepal

148/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Nepal batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Kushal Bhurtelstumped · Amir Jangoo · Akeal Hosein 1 fours · 0 sixes	stumped · Amir Jangoo · b Akeal Hosein	6	11	1	0	54.55
Aasif Sheikhcaught · Keacy Carty · Jason Holder 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Keacy Carty · b Jason Holder	3	4	0	0	75.00
Rohit Kumarcaught · Ackeem Auguste · Navin Bidaisee 3 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Ackeem Auguste · b Navin Bidaisee	38	35	3	1	108.57
Kushal Mallacaught · Jason Holder · Navin Bidaisee 2 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Jason Holder · b Navin Bidaisee

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Akeal Hosein0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	18	1	4.50	0
Jason Holder0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	20	4	5.00	0
Ramon Simmonds0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	25	0	12.50	3
Fabian Allen0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	19	0	9.50	1
Obed McCoy0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	37	0	9.25	1
Navin Bidaisee0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	29	3	7.25	5

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/0
2	6	8/0
3	4	12/1
4	6	18/2
5	2	20/2
6	14	34/2
7	7	41/2
8	2	43/2
9	12	55/2
10	13	68/2
11	3	71/3
12	11	82/3
13	7	89/4
14	10	99/4
15	9	108/4
16	3	111/4
17	10	121/5
18	10	131/5
19	5	136/8
20	12	148/8

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