Noakhali ExpressversusRangpur Riders

9 Jan 2026 · T20

Sylhet International Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Noakhali Express won by 9 runs

Noakhali Express19.5 overs148/10 Rangpur Riders20.0 overs139/9 Sylhet International Cricket Stadium ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Noakhali Express started on 36%; Noakhali Express batted first.

Noakhali Express’s chance of winning (%) · Rangpur Riders is the rest

Noakhali Express's chances ranged from 17% to 97% during the match (Rangpur Riders: 3% to 83%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 3.6: Mohammad Nabi to DJ Malan, DJ Malan out. Noakhali Express up from 37% to 51%.
2nd inns 15.4: Zahir Khan to Towhid Hridoy, Towhid Hridoy out. Noakhali Express up from 38% to 55%.
2nd inns 16.5: Mehedi Hasan Rana to Nurul Hasan, Nurul Hasan out. Noakhali Express up from 62% to 79%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Noakhali Express148/10 Rangpur Riders139/9

Innings 1