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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Asia & EAP Qualifier · 2025/26 · Men
15 Oct 2025 · T20
Recorded result
Nepal more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Nepal started on 63%; Nepal batted first.
Nepal's chances ranged from 55% to 100% during the match (Oman: 0% to 45%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kushal Bhurtellbw · Jiten Ramanandi7 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Jiten Ramanandi | 69 | 51 | 7 | 1 | 135.29 |
| Aasif Sheikhbowled · Nadeem Khan (2) 2 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Nadeem Khan (2) | 24 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 120.00 |
 Rohit Kumarbowled · Nadeem Khan (2)0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Nadeem Khan (2) | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
 Dipendra Singh Aireelbw · Nadeem Khan (2)0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Nadeem Khan (2) | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
 Kushal Mallacaught · Hammad Mirza · Nadeem Khan (2)0 fours · 0 sixes |
|---|
| caught · Hammad Mirza · b Nadeem Khan (2) |
| 7 |
| 9 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 77.78 |
 Mohammad Aadil Alamcaught · Jatinder Singh · Sufyan Mehmood3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jatinder Singh · b Sufyan Mehmood | 16 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 106.67 |
|---|
 Gulsan Jhacaught · Vinayak Shukla · Sufyan Mehmood0 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Vinayak Shukla · b Sufyan Mehmood | 18 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 180.00 |
|---|
| Lokesh Bambowled · Jiten Ramanandi 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jiten Ramanandi | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Sompal Kaminot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Nandan Yadavrun out · Vinayak Shukla, Jiten Ramanandi · Jiten Ramanandi 0 fours · 1 sixes | run out · Vinayak Shukla, Jiten Ramanandi | 9 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 225.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 2 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 2 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shah Faisal0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 34 | 0 | 11.33 | 1 | 0 |
| Shakeel Ahmed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 33 | 0 | 8.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Sufyan Mehmood0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 29 | 2 | 7.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Nadeem Khan (2)0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 20 | 4 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Jiten Ramanandi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 26 | 2 | 6.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Aamir Kaleem0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7.00 | 1 | 0 |
1-61 (Aasif Sheikh, 7.3) · 2-63 (Rohit Kumar, 8.0) · 3-67 (Dipendra Singh Airee, 9.1) · 4-81 (Kushal Malla, 11.4) · 5-121 (Mohammad Aadil Alam, 16.3) · 6-127 (Kushal Bhurtel, 18.0) · 7-141 (Gulsan Jha, 19.0) · 8-141 (Lokesh Bam, 19.1) · 9-151 (Nandan Yadav, 20.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 6 | 10/0 |
| 3 | 11 | 21/0 |
| 4 | 16 | 37/0 |
| 5 | 7 | 44/0 |
| 6 | 9 | 53/0 |
| 7 | 6 | 59/0 |
| 8 | 4 | 63/2 |
| 9 | 4 | 67/2 |
| 10 | 6 | 73/3 |
| 11 | 7 | 80/3 |
| 12 | 1 | 81/4 |
| 13 | 5 | 86/4 |
| 14 | 8 | 94/4 |
| 15 | 7 | 101/4 |
| 16 | 19 | 120/4 |
| 17 | 3 | 123/5 |
| 18 | 4 | 127/6 |
| 19 | 14 | 141/7 |
| 20 | 10 | 151/9 |
Gulsan Jha: Elison Pokhrel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sompal Kami: सरोज कुमार ढकाल · CC BY-SA 3.0
Sandeep Lamichhane: Deshsanchar · CC BY 3.0
Rohit Kumar: Cricnepal · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mohammad Aadil Alam: Madhesh Province Cricket · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kushal Bhurtel: Kushal Bhurtel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dipendra Singh Airee: Dipendra Singh Airee · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kushal Malla: Hamro Khelkud · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
