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West Indies Women tour of Pakistan · 2024 · Women
18 Apr 2024 · ODI
National Stadium, Karachi · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
West Indies started on 49%; West Indies batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Hayley Matthewsnot out15 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 140* | 150 | 15 | 1 | 93.33 |
| Rashada Williamscaught and bowled · Sadia Iqbal 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Sadia Iqbal | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14.29 |
 Shemaine Campbellelbw · Tuba Hassan4 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Tuba Hassan | 45 | 71 | 4 | 0 | 63.38 |
 Stafanie Taylorlbw · Tuba Hassan0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Tuba Hassan | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 28.57 |
West Indies's chances ranged from 35% to 100% during the match (Pakistan: 0% to 66%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| Chedean Nationlbw · Nida Dar 3 fours · 0 sixes |
|---|
| lbw · b Nida Dar |
| 17 |
| 14 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 121.43 |
 Chinelle Henrycaught · Diana Baig · Sadia Iqbal2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Diana Baig · b Sadia Iqbal | 23 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Aaliyah Alleynerun out · Tuba Hassan, Nashra Sandhu · Nashra Sandhu 2 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Tuba Hassan, Nashra Sandhu | 17 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 94.44 |
|---|
 Afy Fletcherrun out · Bismah Maroof, Najiha Alvi · Fatima Sana1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Bismah Maroof, Najiha Alvi | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 133.33 |
|---|
| Zaida Jamesbowled · Nashra Sandhu 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Nashra Sandhu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 200.00 |
|---|
 Karishma Ramharacknot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 5* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 166.67 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 6 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sadia Iqbal1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 38 | 2 | 3.80 | 0 | 0 |
| Diana Baig1 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 1 | 41 | 0 | 5.86 | 3 | 0 |
| Nida Dar0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 43 | 1 | 4.30 | 2 | 0 |
| Fatima Sana0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 47 | 0 | 9.40 | 0 | 0 |
| Nashra Sandhu1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 51 | 1 | 5.10 | 0 | 0 |
| Tuba Hassan0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 48 | 2 | 6.00 | 1 | 0 |
1-1 (Rashada Williams, 2.2) · 2-103 (Shemaine Campbelle, 23.3) · 3-106 (Stafanie Taylor, 25.2) · 4-138 (Chedean Nation, 31.4) · 5-178 (Chinelle Henry, 38.2) · 6-220 (Aaliyah Alleyne, 45.1) · 7-235 (Afy Fletcher, 46.3) · 8-254 (Zaida James, 48.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 3 | 3 | 4/1 |
| 4 | 0 | 4/1 |
| 5 | 1 | 5/1 |
| 6 | 7 | 12/1 |
| 7 | 5 | 17/1 |
| 8 | 8 | 25/1 |
| 9 | 10 | 35/1 |
| 10 | 8 | 43/1 |
| 11 | 11 | 54/1 |
| 12 | 3 | 57/1 |
| 13 | 6 | 63/1 |
| 14 | 2 | 65/1 |
| 15 | 3 | 68/1 |
| 16 | 5 | 73/1 |
| 17 | 4 | 77/1 |
| 18 | 3 | 80/1 |
| 19 | 0 | 80/1 |
| 20 | 4 | 84/1 |
| 21 | 4 | 88/1 |
| 22 | 8 | 96/1 |
| 23 | 6 | 102/1 |
| 24 | 3 | 105/2 |
| 25 | 1 | 106/2 |
| 26 | 6 | 112/3 |
| 27 | 3 | 115/3 |
| 28 | 5 | 120/3 |
| 29 | 8 | 128/3 |
| 30 | 6 | 134/3 |
| 31 | 2 | 136/3 |
| 32 | 4 | 140/4 |
| 33 | 6 | 146/4 |
| 34 | 3 | 149/4 |
| 35 | 5 | 154/4 |
| 36 | 8 | 162/4 |
| 37 | 11 | 173/4 |
| 38 | 4 | 177/4 |
| 39 | 3 | 180/5 |
| 40 | 12 | 192/5 |
| 41 | 6 | 198/5 |
| 42 | 1 | 199/5 |
| 43 | 3 | 202/5 |
| 44 | 7 | 209/5 |
| 45 | 11 | 220/5 |
| 46 | 9 | 229/6 |
| 47 | 14 | 243/7 |
| 48 | 11 | 254/8 |
| 49 | 9 | 263/8 |
| 50 | 6 | 269/8 |
Hayley Matthews: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Stafanie Taylor: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karishma Ramharack: SportsMax TV · CC BY 3.0
Shemaine Campbelle: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Chinelle Henry: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Bismah Maroof: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Afy Fletcher: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shamilia Connell: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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