AustraliaversusNew Zealand

Australia more likely to win

Why

• On results in T20 internationals so far, Australia rate stronger than New Zealand (1,829 vs 1,577 on our results rating)
• In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Australia won 9 and New Zealand won 1
• New Zealand are playing at home in New Zealand

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

Australia started on 86%; Australia batted first.

Australia's chances ranged from 78% to 99% during the match (New Zealand: 1% to 22%).

Biggest swings

1. 2nd inns 17.4: KJ Garth to ML Green, ML Green out. Australia up from 80% to 87%.
2. 2nd inns 18.1: A Sutherland to AC Kerr, four by AC Kerr. New Zealand up from 15% to 22%.
3. 2nd inns 18.3: A Sutherland to JM Kerr, JM Kerr out. Australia up from 81% to 91%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.