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Photo: Paul Williams from United Kingdom
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY 2.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Vitality Blast Men · 2026 · Men
1 Jul 2026 · T20
The County Ground, Chelmsford · Venue photographRecorded result
Surrey started on 53%; Surrey batted first.
Surrey's chances ranged from 52% to 100% during the match (Essex: 0% to 48%).
Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jason Roycaught · Michael-Kyle Pepper · Matthew Critchley6 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Michael-Kyle Pepper · b Matthew Critchley | 65 | 38 | 6 | 3 | 171.05 |
| Laurie Evanscaught · Michael-Kyle Pepper · Matthew Critchley 6 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Michael-Kyle Pepper · b Matthew Critchley | 40 | 23 | 6 | 1 | 173.91 |
| Josh Philippenot out 5 fours · 4 sixes | not out | 61* | 30 | 5 | 4 | 203.33 |
 Ollie Popebowled · Shane Snater10 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Shane Snater | 59 | 26 | 10 | 1 | 226.92 |
 |
| caught · Simon Harmer · b Zaman Akhter |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
 Daniel Lawrencenot out1 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 12* | 3 | 1 | 1 | 400.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 2 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Shane Snater0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 44 | 1 | 11.00 | 0 | 0 |
| CE Bennett0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 47 | 0 | 15.67 | 0 | 0 |
 Zaman Akhter0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 63 | 1 | 15.75 | 1 | 1 |
 Matthew Critchley0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 36 | 2 | 9.00 | 1 | 0 |
 Simon Harmer0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 36 | 0 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Luc Benkenstein0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 14.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-98 (Laurie Evans, 9.0) · 2-116 (Jason Roy, 10.5) · 3-221 (Ollie Pope, 19.0) · 4-228 (Tom Curran, 19.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | 9/0 |
| 2 | 17 | 26/0 |
| 3 | 9 | 35/0 |
| 4 | 10 | 45/0 |
| 5 | 12 | 57/0 |
| 6 | 18 | 75/0 |
| 7 | 3 | 78/0 |
| 8 | 11 | 89/0 |
| 9 | 9 | 98/1 |
| 10 | 5 | 103/1 |
| 11 | 14 | 117/2 |
| 12 | 14 | 131/2 |
| 13 | 7 | 138/2 |
| 14 | 5 | 143/2 |
| 15 | 10 | 153/2 |
| 16 | 15 | 168/2 |
| 17 | 16 | 184/2 |
| 18 | 18 | 202/2 |
| 19 | 19 | 221/3 |
| 20 | 19 | 240/4 |
Daniel Lawrence: Kroome111 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Zaman Akhter: Dave Morton · Public domain
Matthew Critchley: Kroome111 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ollie Pope: Kroome111 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Chris Jordan: Number 10 · CC BY 2.0
Shane Snater: Dave Morton · Public domain
Reece Topley: Kyle Andrews · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jason Roy: Joeyjackets · CC BY-SA 4.0
Simon Harmer: Kroome111 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tom Curran: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jordan Clark: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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