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ICC Women's World Cup Qualifier · 2025 · Women
17 Apr 2025 · ODI
Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Pakistan started on 47%; Pakistan batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawaal Zulfiqarcaught · Onnicha Kamchomphu · Phannita Maya 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Onnicha Kamchomphu · b Phannita Maya | 6 | 28 | 1 | 0 | 21.43 |
| Muneeba Alicaught · Nannapat Koncharoenkai · Onnicha Kamchomphu 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nannapat Koncharoenkai · b Onnicha Kamchomphu | 18 | 33 | 3 | 0 | 54.55 |
| Sidra Ameencaught · Chanida Sutthiruang · T Putthawong 9 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Chanida Sutthiruang · b T Putthawong | 80 | 105 | 9 | 0 | 76.19 |
| Aliya Riazrun out · Nannapat Koncharoenkai, Suleeporn Laomi · T Putthawong 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Nannapat Koncharoenkai, Suleeporn Laomi | 7 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 25.93 |
| Sidra Nawazrun out · Suleeporn Laomi · S Chaturongrattana 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Suleeporn Laomi |
Pakistan's chances ranged from 19% to 100% during the match (Thailand: 0% to 81%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 42 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 26.19 |
| Fatima Sananot out 6 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 62* | 59 | 6 | 1 | 105.08 |
|---|
| Natalia Pervaizcaught · Nattaya Boochatham · T Putthawong 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nattaya Boochatham · b T Putthawong | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Diana Baignot out 0 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 10* | 6 | 0 | 1 | 166.67 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 8 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phannita Maya1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 3.17 | 1 | 0 |
 Nattaya Boochatham1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 37 | 0 | 3.70 | 2 | 0 |
 Onnicha Kamchomphu2 maidens · 3 wides · 2 no-balls | 9.0 | 2 | 39 | 1 | 4.33 | 3 | 2 |
| T Putthawong2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 2 | 37 | 2 | 3.70 | 0 | 0 |
 Suleeporn Laomi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 4.80 | 0 | 0 |
| S Chaturongrattana0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 34 | 0 | 4.25 | 2 | 0 |
 Chanida Sutthiruang0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-23 (Shawaal Zulfiqar, 8.4) · 2-32 (Muneeba Ali, 12.2) · 3-47 (Aliya Riaz, 19.1) · 4-85 (Sidra Nawaz, 31.4) · 5-182 (Sidra Ameen, 47.3) · 6-182 (Natalia Pervaiz, 47.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 6/0 |
| 4 | 0 | 6/0 |
| 5 | 1 | 7/0 |
| 6 | 2 | 9/0 |
| 7 | 9 | 18/0 |
| 8 | 5 | 23/0 |
| 9 | 1 | 24/1 |
| 10 | 2 | 26/1 |
| 11 | 4 | 30/1 |
| 12 | 2 | 32/1 |
| 13 | 0 | 32/2 |
| 14 | 2 | 34/2 |
| 15 | 4 | 38/2 |
| 16 | 6 | 44/2 |
| 17 | 1 | 45/2 |
| 18 | 1 | 46/2 |
| 19 | 1 | 47/2 |
| 20 | 2 | 49/3 |
| 21 | 0 | 49/3 |
| 22 | 5 | 54/3 |
| 23 | 3 | 57/3 |
| 24 | 3 | 60/3 |
| 25 | 4 | 64/3 |
| 26 | 1 | 65/3 |
| 27 | 2 | 67/3 |
| 28 | 3 | 70/3 |
| 29 | 8 | 78/3 |
| 30 | 2 | 80/3 |
| 31 | 1 | 81/3 |
| 32 | 9 | 90/4 |
| 33 | 6 | 96/4 |
| 34 | 2 | 98/4 |
| 35 | 0 | 98/4 |
| 36 | 3 | 101/4 |
| 37 | 0 | 101/4 |
| 38 | 7 | 108/4 |
| 39 | 8 | 116/4 |
| 40 | 3 | 119/4 |
| 41 | 18 | 137/4 |
| 42 | 5 | 142/4 |
| 43 | 6 | 148/4 |
| 44 | 9 | 157/4 |
| 45 | 4 | 161/4 |
| 46 | 11 | 172/4 |
| 47 | 8 | 180/4 |
| 48 | 3 | 183/6 |
| 49 | 7 | 190/6 |
| 50 | 15 | 205/6 |
Naruemol Chaiwai: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nannapat Koncharoenkai: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nattaya Boochatham: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Chanida Sutthiruang: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Onnicha Kamchomphu: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Natthakan Chantam: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Suleeporn Laomi: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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