St Kitts and Nevis PatriotsversusAntigua and Barbuda Falcons

8 Sept 2024 · T20

Warner Park, St Kitts · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Antigua and Barbuda Falcons won by 2 wickets

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots20.0 overs153/8 Antigua and Barbuda Falcons19.4 overs154/8 Warner Park, St Kitts ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots started on 46%; St Kitts and Nevis Patriots batted first.

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots’s chance of winning (%) · Antigua and Barbuda Falcons is the rest

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots's chances ranged from 3% to 78% during the match (Antigua and Barbuda Falcons: 22% to 97%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 13.2: A Nortje to CJ Green, CJ Green out. St Kitts and Nevis Patriots up from 34% to 63%.
2nd inns 15.1: PWH de Silva to SW Billings, SW Billings out. St Kitts and Nevis Patriots up from 51% to 78%.
2nd inns 19.2: DC Drakes to FA Allen, six by FA Allen. Antigua and Barbuda Falcons up from 23% to 69%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots153/8 Antigua and Barbuda Falcons154/8

Innings 1