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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A · 2026 · Men
16 May 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Cyprus more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Cyprus started on 59%; Cyprus batted first.
Cyprus's chances ranged from 0% to 59% during the match (France: 41% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R Mazumderbowled · Abdurrahman Ahmadzai 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Abdurrahman Ahmadzai | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
| A Shahibowled · Abdurrahman Ahmadzai 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Abdurrahman Ahmadzai | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| AA Senncaught · Usman Khan · Dawood Ahmadzai 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Usman Khan · b Dawood Ahmadzai | 22 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 75.86 |
| MPGT Ketiyagebowled · Zada Sher 0 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Zada Sher | 14 | 21 | 0 | 1 | 66.67 |
| Adam Senncaught · Noman Amjad · Mohammad Khan Rafah 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Noman Amjad · b Mohammad Khan Rafah | 45 | 37 | 2 | 0 | 121.62 |
| run out · Nasibullah Arab, Usman Khan |
| 6 |
| 10 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 60.00 |
| Taranjit Singhcaught · G Mckeon · Usman Khan 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · G Mckeon · b Usman Khan | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 112.50 |
|---|
| Karan Singhbowled · Mohammad Khan Rafah 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Mohammad Khan Rafah | 8 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| S Tharangarun out · Mohammad Khan Rafah, Abdurrahman Ahmadzai · Mohammad Khan Rafah 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Mohammad Khan Rafah, Abdurrahman Ahmadzai | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| R Siriwardenanot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 3 · noballs: 3 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abdurrahman Ahmadzai1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 2.25 | 1 | 0 |
| Noman Amjad0 maidens · 1 wides · 3 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 8.00 | 1 | 3 |
| Zada Sher0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 5.33 | 1 | 0 |
| Dawood Ahmadzai0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 25 | 1 | 6.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Mohammad Khan Rafah0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 19 | 2 | 4.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Usman Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 20 | 1 | 10.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-1 (A Shahi, 0.3) · 2-7 (R Mazumder, 2.3) · 3-34 (MPGT Ketiyage, 7.2) · 4-67 (AA Senn, 12.5) · 5-90 (Ruel Brathwaite, 16.3) · 6-98 (Adam Senn, 17.4) · 7-106 (Taranjit Singh, 18.4) · 8-115 (S Tharanga, 19.5) · 9-115 (Karan Singh, 20.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/1 |
| 2 | 5 | 7/1 |
| 3 | 0 | 7/2 |
| 4 | 9 | 16/2 |
| 5 | 2 | 18/2 |
| 6 | 10 | 28/2 |
| 7 | 5 | 33/2 |
| 8 | 7 | 40/3 |
| 9 | 7 | 47/3 |
| 10 | 3 | 50/3 |
| 11 | 6 | 56/3 |
| 12 | 6 | 62/3 |
| 13 | 5 | 67/4 |
| 14 | 4 | 71/4 |
| 15 | 7 | 78/4 |
| 16 | 6 | 84/4 |
| 17 | 12 | 96/5 |
| 18 | 4 | 100/6 |
| 19 | 8 | 108/7 |
| 20 | 7 | 115/9 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.