AustraliaversusWest Indies

9 Feb 2024 · T20

Bellerive Oval, Hobart · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Australia won by 11 runs

Australia20.0 overs213/7 West Indies20.0 overs202/8 Bellerive Oval, Hobart ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

53%Australia47%West Indies

Why

Australia are playing at home in Australia
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, West Indies won 6 and Australia won 4
On results in T20 internationals so far, Australia rate stronger than West Indies (1,583 vs 1,574 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Australia started on 51%; Australia batted first.

Australia’s chance of winning (%) · West Indies is the rest

Australia's chances ranged from 50% to 100% during the match (West Indies: 0% to 50%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 8.3: A Zampa to J Charles, J Charles out. Australia up from 60% to 73%.
2nd inns 10.4: MP Stoinis to BA King, BA King out. Australia up from 77% to 85%.
2nd inns 11.6: GJ Maxwell to R Powell, R Powell out. Australia up from 79% to 87%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Australia213/7 West Indies202/8

Innings 1

Australia

213/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Australia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
David Warnercaught · Nicolas Pooran · Alzarri Joseph 12 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Nicolas Pooran · b Alzarri Joseph	70	36	12	1	194.44
Josh Ingliscaught · Rovman Powell · Jason Holder 5 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Rovman Powell · b Jason Holder	39	25	5	1	156.00
Mitchell Marshcaught · Nicolas Pooran · Alzarri Joseph 0 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Nicolas Pooran · b Alzarri Joseph	16	13	0	1	123.08

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Akeal Hosein0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	42	0	10.50	1	0
Jason Holder0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	37	1	12.33	0	0
Alzarri Joseph0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	46	2	11.50	0	1
Andre Russell0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	42	3	10.50	0	0
Romario Shepherd0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	38	1	9.50	3	0
Rovman Powell0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	6	0	6.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	7	7/0
2	16	23/0
3	17	40/0
4	11	51/0
5	12	63/0
6	14	77/0
7	8	85/0
8	8	93/1
9	6	99/1
10	11	110/1
11	6	116/1
12	13	129/1
13	9	138/3
14	9	147/4
15	5	152/4
16	8	160/5
17	13	173/5
18	17	190/5
19	13	203/5
20	10	213/7

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