**Achimota Senior Secondary School A Field, Accra**
Photo: Amuzujoe
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

African Games · 2023/24 · Men

NamibiaversusZimbabwe

23 Mar 2024 · T20

Achimota Senior Secondary School A Field, Accra · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Zimbabwe won by 8 wickets

Namibia20.0 overs113/7 Zimbabwe14.5 overs114/2 Achimota Senior Secondary School A Field, Accra ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Namibia more likely to win

56%Namibia44%Zimbabwe

Why

In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Namibia won 6 and Zimbabwe won 4
On results in T20 internationals so far, Namibia rate stronger than Zimbabwe (1,601 vs 1,583 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Namibia started on 56%; Namibia batted first.

Namibia’s chance of winning (%) · Zimbabwe is the rest

Namibia's chances ranged from 0% to 58% during the match (Zimbabwe: 42% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.5: WT Mubayiwa to N Davin, N Davin out. Zimbabwe up from 43% to 54%.
2.2: WT Mubayiwa to GJ van Rensburg, GJ van Rensburg out. Zimbabwe up from 58% to 68%.
8.3: T Munyonga to JP Kotze, JP Kotze out. Zimbabwe up from 61% to 68%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Namibia113/7 Zimbabwe114/2

Innings 1

Namibia

113/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Namibia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Malan Krugercaught · Tadiwanashe Marumani · Owen Muzondo 1 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Tadiwanashe Marumani · b Owen Muzondo	22	21	1	1	104.76
Niko Davinrun out · Brian Bennett · Wallace Mubayiwa 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Brian Bennett	1	3	0	0	33.33
GJ van Rensburgbowled · Wallace Mubayiwa 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Wallace Mubayiwa	1	7	0	0	14.29
Jean-Pierre Kotzecaught · Clive Madande · Tony Munyonga 4 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Clive Madande · b Tony Munyonga	26	26	4	1	100.00
DO Leichercaught · Clive Madande · Trevor Gwandu 2 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Wallace Mubayiwa0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	15	1	3.75	0
Trevor Gwandu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	23	1	5.75	0
Kudakwashe Macheka0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	14	1	4.67	1
Owen Muzondo0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	10	1	5.00	1
Tony Munyonga0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	25	1	6.25	1
Tashinga Musekiwa0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	19	0	6.33	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	3	3/1
2	2	5/1
3	5	10/2
4	8	18/2
5	4	22/2
6	8	30/2
7	8	38/2
8	2	40/2
9	4	44/3
10	9	53/3
11	6	59/4
12	6	65/4
13	1	66/4
14	7	73/4
15	6	79/4
16	5	84/4
17	9	93/4
18	7	100/5
19	7	107/6
20	6	113/7

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