NigeriaversusKenya

30 Sept 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Kenya won by 7 wickets

Nigeria20.0 overs147/7 Kenya13.4 overs148/3 Takashinga Sports Club, Highfield, Harare ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Kenya more likely to win

31%Nigeria69%Kenya

Why

In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Kenya won 8 and Nigeria won 2
On results in T20 internationals so far, Kenya rate stronger than Nigeria (1,484 vs 1,423 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Nigeria started on 29%; Nigeria batted first.

Nigeria’s chance of winning (%) · Kenya is the rest

Nigeria's chances ranged from 0% to 48% during the match (Kenya: 52% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 1.4: R Abdulkareem to DM Gondaria, DM Gondaria out. Nigeria up from 20% to 29%.
2nd inns 3.6: AA Jimoh to P Sharma, P Sharma out. Nigeria up from 20% to 29%.
2nd inns 4.2: P Useni to RR Patel, six by RR Patel. Kenya up from 71% to 82%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Nigeria147/7 Kenya148/3

Innings 1

Nigeria

147/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Nigeria batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Sulaimon Runsewecaught · Sukhdeep Singh · Vraj Patel 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Sukhdeep Singh · b Vraj Patel	27	32	2	0	84.38
Selim Salaulbw · Vraj Patel 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Vraj Patel	2	3	0	0	66.67
Isaac Danladicaught · Rakep Patel · N Hirani 6 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Rakep Patel · b N Hirani	53	47	6	1	112.77
P Usenicaught · Sachin Bhudia · Jasraj Kundi 0 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Sachin Bhudia · b Jasraj Kundi	13	10	0	1	130.00
Sylvester Okpebowled · Lucas Oluoch 1 fours · 2 sixes	bowled · b Lucas Oluoch	26	19	1	2	136.84

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Sachin Gill0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	20	0	5.00	1
Vraj Patel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	29	2	7.25	0
Peter Langat0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	13	0	13.00	3
Dhiren Gondaria0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	26	0	8.67	3
N Hirani0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	21	1	7.00	0
Lucas Oluoch0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	15	2	5.00	2
Jasraj Kundi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	15	1	7.50	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	3	3/0
2	4	7/1
3	5	12/1
4	20	32/1
5	13	45/1
6	6	51/1
7	7	58/1
8	5	63/1
9	9	72/1
10	4	76/1
11	3	79/2
12	6	85/2
13	6	91/2
14	13	104/2
15	9	113/3
16	2	115/3
17	13	128/4
18	3	131/5
19	10	141/5
20	6	147/7

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