Trinbago Knight RidersversusSt Lucia Kings

23 Aug 2025 · T20

Daren Sammy National Cricket Stadium, Gros Islet · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Trinbago Knight Riders won by 18 runs

Trinbago Knight Riders20.0 overs183/7 St Lucia Kings20.0 overs165/6 Daren Sammy National Cricket Stadium, Gros Islet ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Trinbago Knight Riders started on 42%; Trinbago Knight Riders batted first.

Trinbago Knight Riders’s chance of winning (%) · St Lucia Kings is the rest

Trinbago Knight Riders's chances ranged from 24% to 100% during the match (St Lucia Kings: 0% to 76%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 8.3: AD Russell to TL Seifert, TL Seifert out. Trinbago Knight Riders up from 26% to 39%.
2nd inns 11.5: Usman Tariq to J Charles, J Charles out. Trinbago Knight Riders up from 41% to 55%.
2nd inns 12.1: AJ Hosein to RL Chase, RL Chase out. Trinbago Knight Riders up from 57% to 70%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Trinbago Knight Riders183/7 St Lucia Kings165/6

Innings 1