Lucknow Super GiantsversusRoyal Challengers Bengaluru

15 Apr 2026 · T20

M Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bengaluru · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Royal Challengers Bengaluru won by 5 wickets

Lucknow Super Giants20.0 overs146/10 Royal Challengers Bengaluru15.1 overs149/5 M Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bengaluru ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Lucknow Super Giants started on 36%; Lucknow Super Giants batted first.

Lucknow Super Giants’s chance of winning (%) · Royal Challengers Bengaluru is the rest

Lucknow Super Giants's chances ranged from 0% to 46% during the match (Royal Challengers Bengaluru: 54% to 100%).

Biggest swings

3.6: Rasikh Salam to AK Markram, AK Markram out. Royal Challengers Bengaluru up from 54% to 65%.
6.1: JR Hazlewood to N Pooran, N Pooran out. Royal Challengers Bengaluru up from 74% to 81%.
11.2: KH Pandya to Abdul Samad, Abdul Samad out. Royal Challengers Bengaluru up from 74% to 80%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Lucknow Super Giants146/10 Royal Challengers Bengaluru149/5

Innings 1