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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2026 · Men
4 Apr 2026 · ODI
Recorded result
Namibia more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Namibia started on 51%; Namibia batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WP Myburghbowled · Jiten Ramanandi 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jiten Ramanandi | 43 | 69 | 1 | 0 | 62.32 |
 Malan Krugercaught · Jatinder Singh · Hassnain Shah1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Jatinder Singh · b Hassnain Shah | 21 | 44 | 1 | 1 | 47.73 |
| Jan Frylinckcaught · Vinayak Shukla · Hassnain Shah 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Vinayak Shukla · b Hassnain Shah | 13 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 44.83 |
| Gerhard Erasmuscaught · Pruthvikumar Macchi · Shakeel Ahmed 4 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Pruthvikumar Macchi · b Shakeel Ahmed | 54 | 55 | 4 | 1 | 98.18 |
| Louren Steenkampcaught · Hammad Mirza · Shakeel Ahmed 2 fours · 0 sixes |
Namibia's chances ranged from 3% to 94% during the match (Oman: 7% to 97%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Hammad Mirza · b Shakeel Ahmed |
| 32 |
| 48 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 66.67 |
| JJ Smitcaught · Mujibur Ali · Wasim Ali 0 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Mujibur Ali · b Wasim Ali | 24 | 17 | 0 | 3 | 141.18 |
|---|
| Zane Greencaught · Vinayak Shukla · Hassnain Shah 6 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Vinayak Shukla · b Hassnain Shah | 42 | 22 | 6 | 1 | 190.91 |
|---|
| DO Leichernot out 2 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 30* | 17 | 2 | 1 | 176.47 |
|---|
| Bernard Scholtznot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 5 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shah Faisal1 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 61 | 0 | 6.10 | 1 | 1 |
| Shakeel Ahmed0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 31 | 2 | 3.10 | 1 | 1 |
| Mujibur Ali0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 42 | 0 | 4.20 | 1 | 0 |
| Hassnain Shah0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 58 | 3 | 7.25 | 1 | 0 |
| Jay Odedra0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 5.40 | 0 | 0 |
| Jiten Ramanandi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 26 | 1 | 5.20 | 0 | 0 |
| Wasim Ali0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 22 | 1 | 11.00 | 1 | 0 |
1-36 (Malan Kruger, 11.4) · 2-64 (Jan Frylinck, 19.1) · 3-102 (WP Myburgh, 27.3) · 4-170 (Louren Steenkamp, 40.2) · 5-171 (Gerhard Erasmus, 40.5) · 6-198 (JJ Smit, 44.4) · 7-257 (Zane Green, 49.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 3/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 7/0 |
| 4 | 4 | 11/0 |
| 5 | 1 | 12/0 |
| 6 | 2 | 14/0 |
| 7 | 5 | 19/0 |
| 8 | 3 | 22/0 |
| 9 | 2 | 24/0 |
| 10 | 3 | 27/0 |
| 11 | 8 | 35/0 |
| 12 | 2 | 37/1 |
| 13 | 4 | 41/1 |
| 14 | 1 | 42/1 |
| 15 | 6 | 48/1 |
| 16 | 7 | 55/1 |
| 17 | 4 | 59/1 |
| 18 | 1 | 60/1 |
| 19 | 4 | 64/1 |
| 20 | 9 | 73/2 |
| 21 | 7 | 80/2 |
| 22 | 2 | 82/2 |
| 23 | 2 | 84/2 |
| 24 | 5 | 89/2 |
| 25 | 3 | 92/2 |
| 26 | 4 | 96/2 |
| 27 | 4 | 100/2 |
| 28 | 4 | 104/3 |
| 29 | 2 | 106/3 |
| 30 | 7 | 113/3 |
| 31 | 5 | 118/3 |
| 32 | 3 | 121/3 |
| 33 | 2 | 123/3 |
| 34 | 8 | 131/3 |
| 35 | 1 | 132/3 |
| 36 | 8 | 140/3 |
| 37 | 11 | 151/3 |
| 38 | 7 | 158/3 |
| 39 | 5 | 163/3 |
| 40 | 7 | 170/3 |
| 41 | 1 | 171/5 |
| 42 | 3 | 174/5 |
| 43 | 2 | 176/5 |
| 44 | 10 | 186/5 |
| 45 | 15 | 201/6 |
| 46 | 11 | 212/6 |
| 47 | 11 | 223/6 |
| 48 | 13 | 236/6 |
| 49 | 18 | 254/6 |
| 50 | 14 | 268/7 |
Malan Kruger: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
