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West Indies tour of New Zealand · 2025/26 · Men
5 Nov 2025 · T20
Eden Park, Auckland · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
West Indies started on 21%; West Indies batted first.
West Indies's chances ranged from 10% to 100% during the match (New Zealand: 0% to 90%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Kingcaught · Zakary Foulkes · Jacob Duffy 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Zakary Foulkes · b Jacob Duffy | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 75.00 |
| Alick Athanazecaught · Mark Chapman · Kyle Jamieson 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Mark Chapman · b Kyle Jamieson | 16 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 177.78 |
 Shai Hopebowled · Zakary Foulkes4 fours · 3 sixes | bowled · b Zakary Foulkes | 53 | 39 | 4 | 3 | 135.90 |
| Ackeem Augustecaught · Rachin Ravindra · James Neesham 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rachin Ravindra · b James Neesham | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
 |
| bowled · b Jacob Duffy |
| 28 |
| 27 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| 103.70 |
| Rovman Powellcaught · Devon Conway · Zakary Foulkes 2 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Devon Conway · b Zakary Foulkes | 33 | 23 | 2 | 2 | 143.48 |
|---|
 Jason Holdernot out1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 5* | 5 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Romario Shepherdnot out 2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 9* | 5 | 2 | 0 | 180.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 6 · wides: 9 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jacob Duffy0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 19 | 2 | 4.75 | 3 | 0 |
 Kyle Jamieson0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 30 | 1 | 7.50 | 2 | 0 |
| Zakary Foulkes0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 35 | 2 | 8.75 | 1 | 0 |
| James Neesham0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 23 | 1 | 7.67 | 1 | 0 |
| Mitchell Santner0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 40 | 0 | 10.00 | 2 | 0 |
 Rachin Ravindra0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 11.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-4 (Brandon King, 1.0) · 2-28 (Alick Athanaze, 4.3) · 3-43 (Ackeem Auguste, 7.0) · 4-97 (Shai Hope, 12.3) · 5-146 (Roston Chase, 18.0) · 6-148 (Rovman Powell, 18.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/1 |
| 2 | 6 | 10/1 |
| 3 | 2 | 12/1 |
| 4 | 11 | 23/1 |
| 5 | 5 | 28/2 |
| 6 | 4 | 32/2 |
| 7 | 11 | 43/3 |
| 8 | 5 | 48/3 |
| 9 | 9 | 57/3 |
| 10 | 9 | 66/3 |
| 11 | 12 | 78/3 |
| 12 | 12 | 90/3 |
| 13 | 8 | 98/4 |
| 14 | 3 | 101/4 |
| 15 | 12 | 113/4 |
| 16 | 15 | 128/4 |
| 17 | 9 | 137/4 |
| 18 | 9 | 146/5 |
| 19 | 7 | 153/6 |
| 20 | 11 | 164/6 |
Roston Chase: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kyle Jamieson: Photographer - David Hollander · CC BY 3.0 nz
Jason Holder: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Jacob Duffy: Dave Morton · Public domain
Shai Hope: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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