BotswanaversusSierra Leone

Botswana more likely to win

Why

• On results in T20 internationals so far, Botswana rate stronger than Sierra Leone (1,465 vs 1,316 on our results rating)
• In the last 2 T20 internationals between these sides, Botswana won 2 and Sierra Leone won 0
• Botswana are playing at home in Botswana

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

Botswana started on 80%; Botswana batted first.

Botswana's chances ranged from 80% to 100% during the match (Sierra Leone: 0% to 20%).

Biggest swings

1. 0.5: AB Kamara to M Kasselman, four by M Kasselman. Botswana up from 82% to 84%.
2. 2.5: AB Kamara to M Kasselman, six by M Kasselman. Botswana up from 87% to 90%.
3. 2nd inns 1.4: N Master to Y Jalloh, Y Jalloh out. Botswana up from 92% to 95%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.