BahrainversusQatar

20 Dec 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Qatar won by 6 wickets

Bahrain16.3 overs98/10 Qatar17.0 overs102/4 ICC Academy, Dubai ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

52%Bahrain48%Qatar

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Bahrain rate stronger than Qatar (1,511 vs 1,475 on our results rating)
In the last 5 T20 internationals between these sides, Qatar won 3 and Bahrain won 2

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bahrain started on 51%; Bahrain batted first.

Bahrain’s chance of winning (%) · Qatar is the rest

Bahrain's chances ranged from 0% to 54% during the match (Qatar: 46% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.5: Muhammad Jabir to Sarfaraz Ali, Sarfaraz Ali out. Qatar up from 46% to 57%.
1.3: Amir Farooq to Imran Anwar, Imran Anwar out. Qatar up from 53% to 64%.
4.1: Muhammad Jabir to P Kurup, P Kurup out. Qatar up from 61% to 71%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bahrain98/10 Qatar102/4

Innings 1

Bahrain

98/1016.3 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bahrain batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
P Kuruplbw · Muhammad Jabir 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Muhammad Jabir	2	8	0	0	25.00
Sarfaraz Alibowled · Muhammad Jabir 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Muhammad Jabir	4	2	1	0	200.00
Imran Anwarlbw · Amir Farooq 1 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Amir Farooq	5	4	1	0	125.00
Asif Alirun out · Imal Liyanage · H Rathod 1 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Imal Liyanage	17	19	1	0	89.47
Haider Buttcaught and bowled · Mohammed Nadeem 3 fours · 1 sixes	caught and bowled · b Mohammed Nadeem	27	26	3	1	103.85
Ahmer Bin Nasirbowled · H Rathod1 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Muhammad Jabir0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	16	2	5.33	0
Amir Farooq0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	16	1	5.33	1
Mohammed Nadeem0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	26	1	6.50	2
H Rathod0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	25	1	6.25	2
Ikramullah Khan0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	6	2	3.00	1
Muhammad Asim0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	0.3	1	2	2.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	6	6/1
2	4	10/2
3	7	17/2
4	7	24/2
5	6	30/3
6	5	35/3
7	7	42/3
8	6	48/4
9	5	53/4
10	7	60/4
11	8	68/4
12	9	77/4
13	7	84/5
14	8	92/5
15	3	95/6
16	2	97/8
17	1	98/10

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