West IndiesversusSouth Africa

4 Oct 2024 · T20

Dubai International Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

South Africa won by 10 wickets

West Indies20.0 overs118/6 South Africa17.5 overs119/0 Dubai International Cricket Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

53%West Indies47%South Africa

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, West Indies rate stronger than South Africa (1,598 vs 1,529 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, South Africa won 7 and West Indies won 3

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

West Indies started on 50%; West Indies batted first.

West Indies’s chance of winning (%) · South Africa is the rest

West Indies's chances ranged from 0% to 57% during the match (South Africa: 43% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2.5: M Kapp to HK Matthews, HK Matthews out. South Africa up from 43% to 51%.
6.5: M Kapp to DJS Dottin, DJS Dottin out. South Africa up from 56% to 63%.
11.5: N Mlaba to CA Henry, CA Henry out. South Africa up from 57% to 65%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

West Indies118/6 South Africa119/0

Innings 1

West Indies

118/620.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

West Indies batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Hayley Matthewscaught · Sinalo Jafta · Marizanne Kapp 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Sinalo Jafta · b Marizanne Kapp	10	11	2	0	90.91
Qiana Josephbowled · Nonkululeko Mlaba 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Nonkululeko Mlaba	4	14	1	0	28.57
Stafanie Taylornot out 2 fours · 1 sixes	not out	44*	41	2	1	107.32
Deandra Dottincaught · Laura Wolvaardt · Marizanne Kapp 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Laura Wolvaardt · b Marizanne Kapp	13	11

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Marizanne Kapp0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	14	2	3.50	0
Ayabonga Khaka1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	1	12	0	4.00	1
Nonkululeko Mlaba0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	29	4	7.25	5
Chloe Tryon0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	23	0	5.75	0
Nadine de Klerk0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	14	0	7.00	0
Annerie Dercksen0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	14	0	14.00	1
Suné Luus0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	11	0	5.50	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	6	6/0
2	5	11/0
3	4	15/1
4	0	15/1
5	8	23/2
6	8	31/2
7	1	32/3
8	6	38/3
9	14	52/3
10	5	57/3
11	5	62/3
12	6	68/5
13	6	74/5
14	5	79/5
15	4	83/5
16	10	93/6
17	3	96/6
18	7	103/6
19	6	109/6
20	9	118/6

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