IrelandversusUnited States of America

22 Jan 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Ireland won by 16 runs

Ireland20.0 overs154/7 United States of America20.0 overs138/8 Mulpani Cricket Ground ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Ireland more likely to win

85%Ireland15%United States of America

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Ireland rate stronger than United States of America (1,698 vs 1,448 on our results rating)
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Ireland won 1 and United States of America won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Ireland started on 85%; Ireland batted first.

Ireland’s chance of winning (%) · United States of America is the rest

Ireland's chances ranged from 77% to 100% during the match (United States of America: 0% to 23%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 2.5: A Canning to D Dhingra, D Dhingra out. Ireland up from 78% to 85%.
2nd inns 4.2: A Canning to E Claridge, E Claridge out. Ireland up from 77% to 85%.
2nd inns 5.3: AK Maguire to IM Vaghela, IM Vaghela out. Ireland up from 85% to 90%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Ireland154/7 United States of America138/8

Innings 1

Ireland

154/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Ireland batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Amy Huntercaught · T Chopra · Tara Norris 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · T Chopra · b Tara Norris	18	13	3	0	138.46
Gaby Lewiscaught · Ella Claridge · T Chopra 4 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Ella Claridge · b T Chopra	42	32	4	1	131.25
Orla Prendergastbowled · Tara Norris 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Tara Norris	0	1	0	0	0.00
Leah Paulstumped · Ella Claridge · Tara Norris 8 fours · 0 sixes	stumped · Ella Claridge · b Tara Norris	67	52	8	0	128.85
Laura Delanystumped · Ella Claridge · S Immadi 0 fours · 0 sixes	stumped · Ella Claridge · b S Immadi	5	8	0	0	62.50

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls
AI Chudasama0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	30	0	7.50
Tara Norris1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	10	3	2.50
Maahi Madhavan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	17	0	17.00
Isani Vaghela0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	41	0	10.25
S Immadi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	25	1	6.25
Ritu Singh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	11	0	11.00
T Chopra0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	18	1	9.00

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	7	7/0
2	3	10/0
3	17	27/0
4	1	28/2
5	9	37/2
6	0	37/2
7	11	48/2
8	10	58/2
9	9	67/2
10	5	72/2
11	11	83/2
12	8	91/2
13	5	96/2
14	8	104/3
15	5	109/3
16	10	119/3
17	6	125/4
18	5	130/4
19	8	138/6
20	16	154/7

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