FinlandversusBulgaria

27 Aug 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Finland won by 125 runs

Finland20.0 overs199/8 Bulgaria20.0 overs74/9 Guernsey Rovers Athletic Club Ground, Port Soif ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Finland more likely to win

67%Finland33%Bulgaria

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Finland rate stronger than Bulgaria (1,386 vs 1,266 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Finland started on 65%; Finland batted first.

Finland’s chance of winning (%) · Bulgaria is the rest

Finland's chances ranged from 66% to 100% during the match (Bulgaria: 0% to 34%).

Biggest swings

0.1: Danyal Raja to VS Padhaal, 2 runs to VS Padhaal. Finland up from 66% to 71%.
2.3: Danyal Raja to Ghulam Abbas Butt, Ghulam Abbas Butt out. Bulgaria up from 14% to 19%.
2.6: Danyal Raja to Atif Rasheed, Atif Rasheed out. Bulgaria up from 20% to 27%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Finland199/8 Bulgaria74/9

Innings 1

Finland

199/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Finland batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Ghulam Abbas Buttlbw · Danyal Raja 2 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Danyal Raja	10	6	2	0	166.67
VS Padhaalcaught · Isa Zaroo · P Mishra 5 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Isa Zaroo · b P Mishra	58	39	5	2	148.72
Atif Rasheedcaught · Gagandeep Singh (3) · Danyal Raja 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Gagandeep Singh (3) · b Danyal Raja	0	3	0	0	0.00
Jordan O'Brienbowled · Zeerak Chughtai 3 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Zeerak Chughtai	22	12	3	0	183.33
NM Salonenbowled · Firas Hussain 2 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Firas Hussain	22	18	2	0	122.22

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Danyal Raja0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	26	2	8.67	5	0
Ali Rasool0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	21	0	21.00	0	0
Gagandeep Singh (3)0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	33	0	11.00	3	0
P Mishra0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	19	1	4.75	0	0
Zeerak Chughtai0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	19	1	9.50	1	0
Huzaif Yousuf0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls	1.0	17	0	17.00	1	1
M Gogev0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	37	1	9.25	2	0
Firas Hussain0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	23	1	11.50	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	8	8/0
2	21	29/0
3	8	37/2
4	11	48/2
5	10	58/2
6	10	68/2
7	4	72/2
8	7	79/3
9	4	83/3
10	12	95/3
11	7	102/3
12	17	119/3
13	7	126/4
14	10	136/4
15	9	145/5
16	9	154/5
17	14	168/5
18	9	177/6
19	12	189/6
20	10	199/8

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.