NetherlandsversusBangladesh

30 Aug 2025 · T20

Sylhet International Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Bangladesh won by 8 wickets

Netherlands20.0 overs136/8 Bangladesh13.3 overs138/2 Sylhet International Cricket Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Bangladesh more likely to win

38%Netherlands62%Bangladesh

Why

In the last 5 T20 internationals between these sides, Bangladesh won 4 and Netherlands won 1
Bangladesh are playing at home in Bangladesh
On results in T20 internationals so far, Netherlands rate stronger than Bangladesh (1,581 vs 1,568 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Netherlands started on 35%; Netherlands batted first.

Netherlands’s chance of winning (%) · Bangladesh is the rest

Netherlands's chances ranged from 0% to 47% during the match (Bangladesh: 54% to 100%).

Biggest swings

3.1: Taskin Ahmed to MP O'Dowd, MP O'Dowd out. Bangladesh up from 54% to 65%.
9.4: Saif Hassan to SA Edwards, SA Edwards out. Bangladesh up from 67% to 73%.
9.6: Saif Hassan to AT Nidamanuru, AT Nidamanuru out. Bangladesh up from 73% to 79%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Netherlands136/8 Bangladesh138/2

Innings 1

Netherlands

136/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Netherlands batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Max O'Dowdcaught · Jaker Ali · Taskin Ahmed 3 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Jaker Ali · b Taskin Ahmed	23	15	3	1	153.33
Vikramjit Singhcaught · Parvez Hossain Emon · Taskin Ahmed 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Parvez Hossain Emon · b Taskin Ahmed	4	11	0	0	36.36
Teja Nidamanurucaught · Tawhid Hridoy · Saif Hassan 3 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Tawhid Hridoy · b Saif Hassan	26	26	3	1	100.00
Scott Edwardscaught · Jaker Ali · Saif Hassan 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Jaker Ali · b Saif Hassan	12	7	1	0	171.43
Shariz Ahmadcaught · Jaker Ali · Mustafizur Rahman 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Jaker Ali · b Mustafizur Rahman	15	14	1	0

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Mahedi Hasan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	21	0	5.25	0
Shariful Islam1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	30	0	7.50	0
Taskin Ahmed0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	28	4	7.00	2
Mustafizur Rahman0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	19	1	4.75	0
Rishad Hossain0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	16	0	8.00	0
Saif Hassan0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	18	2	9.00	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	3	3/0
2	13	16/0
3	9	25/0
4	1	26/1
5	1	27/1
6	7	34/1
7	4	38/1
8	11	49/2
9	11	60/2
10	8	68/4
11	5	73/4
12	11	84/4
13	3	87/5
14	5	92/5
15	6	98/5
16	4	102/6
17	2	104/6
18	13	117/7
19	7	124/7
20	12	136/8

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