OneTipOneHand
Bringing the game to you…
Loading your next view.
THE WORLD OF CRICKET. CONNECTED. One game. A global community.
OneTipOneHand
Loading your next view.
Spot an error, a missing record or a photograph that needs attention?
Photo: Younisjunejo
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
ICC Champions Trophy · 2024/25 · Men
5 Mar 2025 · ODI
Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
New Zealand started on 54%; New Zealand batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Youngcaught · Aiden Markram · Lungi Ngidi3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aiden Markram · b Lungi Ngidi | 21 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 91.30 |
 Rachin Ravindracaught · Heinrich Klaasen · Kagiso Rabada13 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Heinrich Klaasen · b Kagiso Rabada | 108 | 101 | 13 | 1 | 106.93 |
 Kane Williamsoncaught · Lungi Ngidi · Wiaan Mulder10 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Lungi Ngidi · b Wiaan Mulder | 102 | 94 | 10 | 2 | 108.51 |
| Daryl Mitchellcaught · Kagiso Rabada · Lungi Ngidi 4 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Kagiso Rabada |
New Zealand's chances ranged from 54% to 100% during the match (South Africa: 0% to 46%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 49 |
| 37 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 132.43 |
 Tom Lathambowled · Kagiso Rabada0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Kagiso Rabada | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 80.00 |
|---|
| Glenn Phillipsnot out 6 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 49* | 27 | 6 | 1 | 181.48 |
|---|
| Michael Bracewellcaught · Ryan Rickelton · Lungi Ngidi 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ryan Rickelton · b Lungi Ngidi | 16 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 133.33 |
|---|
| Mitchell Santnernot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 200.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 6 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Marco Jansen0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 79 | 0 | 7.90 | 2 | 0 |
 Lungi Ngidi0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 72 | 3 | 7.20 | 2 | 0 |
 Kagiso Rabada1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 70 | 2 | 7.00 | 1 | 0 |
 Wiaan Mulder0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 48 | 1 | 8.00 | 1 | 0 |
 Keshav Maharaj0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 65 | 0 | 6.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Aiden Markram0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 5.75 | 0 | 0 |
1-48 (Will Young, 7.5) · 2-212 (Rachin Ravindra, 33.3) · 3-251 (Kane Williamson, 39.5) · 4-257 (Tom Latham, 41.1) · 5-314 (Daryl Mitchell, 46.1) · 6-360 (Michael Bracewell, 49.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 6/0 |
| 3 | 6 | 12/0 |
| 4 | 9 | 21/0 |
| 5 | 8 | 29/0 |
| 6 | 1 | 30/0 |
| 7 | 14 | 44/0 |
| 8 | 4 | 48/1 |
| 9 | 3 | 51/1 |
| 10 | 5 | 56/1 |
| 11 | 7 | 63/1 |
| 12 | 4 | 67/1 |
| 13 | 0 | 67/1 |
| 14 | 10 | 77/1 |
| 15 | 10 | 87/1 |
| 16 | 4 | 91/1 |
| 17 | 3 | 94/1 |
| 18 | 15 | 109/1 |
| 19 | 2 | 111/1 |
| 20 | 2 | 113/1 |
| 21 | 4 | 117/1 |
| 22 | 5 | 122/1 |
| 23 | 5 | 127/1 |
| 24 | 3 | 130/1 |
| 25 | 13 | 143/1 |
| 26 | 4 | 147/1 |
| 27 | 12 | 159/1 |
| 28 | 10 | 169/1 |
| 29 | 6 | 175/1 |
| 30 | 6 | 181/1 |
| 31 | 3 | 184/1 |
| 32 | 17 | 201/1 |
| 33 | 11 | 212/1 |
| 34 | 1 | 213/2 |
| 35 | 3 | 216/2 |
| 36 | 8 | 224/2 |
| 37 | 10 | 234/2 |
| 38 | 9 | 243/2 |
| 39 | 2 | 245/2 |
| 40 | 7 | 252/3 |
| 41 | 5 | 257/3 |
| 42 | 4 | 261/4 |
| 43 | 13 | 274/4 |
| 44 | 5 | 279/4 |
| 45 | 17 | 296/4 |
| 46 | 18 | 314/4 |
| 47 | 10 | 324/5 |
| 48 | 19 | 343/5 |
| 49 | 6 | 349/5 |
| 50 | 13 | 362/6 |
Ryan Rickelton: Dave Morton · Public domain
Temba Bavuma: Michael Sherman · CC BY 3.0
Wiaan Mulder: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kyle Jamieson: Photographer - David Hollander · CC BY 3.0 nz
Marco Jansen: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Matt Henry: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
David Miller: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Aiden Markram: Marcel Sigg · CC0
Keshav Maharaj: Dave Morton · Public domain
William O’Rourke: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Young: Dave Morton · Public domain
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Lungi Ngidi: Starc99 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kagiso Rabada: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kane Williamson: Mark Lockett · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
.png){kind=link}
.jpg){kind=link}
.jpg){kind=link}
.jpg){kind=link}
.jpg){kind=link}
