Los Angeles Knight RidersversusSan Francisco Unicorns

7 Jul 2024 · T20

Grand Prairie Stadium, Dallas · Venue photograph

Recorded result

San Francisco Unicorns won by 6 wickets

Los Angeles Knight Riders20.0 overs165/6 San Francisco Unicorns15.2 overs166/4 Grand Prairie Stadium, Dallas ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Los Angeles Knight Riders started on 48%; Los Angeles Knight Riders batted first.

Los Angeles Knight Riders’s chance of winning (%) · San Francisco Unicorns is the rest

Los Angeles Knight Riders's chances ranged from 0% to 70% during the match (San Francisco Unicorns: 30% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.4: Haris Rauf to SP Narine, SP Narine out. San Francisco Unicorns up from 47% to 57%.
2.6: BL Couch to UBT Chand, UBT Chand out. San Francisco Unicorns up from 57% to 68%.
2nd inns 2.3: SH Johnson to J Fraser-McGurk, J Fraser-McGurk out. Los Angeles Knight Riders up from 59% to 70%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Los Angeles Knight Riders165/6 San Francisco Unicorns166/4

Innings 1