ArgentinaversusBelize

7 Dec 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Argentina won by 5 runs

Argentina19.3 overs101/10 Belize19.1 overs96/10 St George's College Ground, Buenos Aires ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Argentina more likely to win

75%Argentina25%Belize

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Argentina rate stronger than Belize (1,408 vs 1,297 on our results rating)
Argentina are playing at home in Argentina
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Argentina won 1 and Belize won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Argentina started on 72%; Argentina batted first.

Argentina’s chance of winning (%) · Belize is the rest

Argentina's chances ranged from 27% to 94% during the match (Belize: 6% to 73%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 1.5: H Fennell to L Bonner, L Bonner out. Argentina up from 48% to 71%.
2nd inns 12.5: AAP Rivero to Garret Banner, Garret Banner out. Argentina up from 65% to 88%.
2nd inns 19.1: H Fennell to B Lewis, B Lewis out. Argentina up from 58% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Argentina101/10 Belize96/10

Innings 1

Argentina

101/1019.3 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Argentina batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Lucas Rossilbw · NN Banner 3 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b NN Banner	18	20	3	0	90.00
Guido Angeletticaught · GG Banner · NN Banner 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · GG Banner · b NN Banner	6	13	0	0	46.15
P Baroncaught · GG Banner · BS Stephenson 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · GG Banner · b BS Stephenson	3	7	0	0	42.86
A Kirschbaumbowled · NN Banner 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b NN Banner	9	11	0	0	81.82
T Rossicaught · J Pakeman · ML Castillo 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · J Pakeman · b ML Castillo	18	17	2	0	105.88
Manuel Iturbe

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Garret Banner0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.3	0	21	0	8.40	2
L Bonner0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	17	2	4.25	1
NN Banner1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	12	3	3.00	0
BS Stephenson0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	18	1	4.50	1
ML Castillo0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	21	3	5.25	1
B Lewis0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	7	0	7.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	15	15/0
2	4	19/0
3	6	25/0
4	2	27/0
5	2	29/1
6	6	35/2
7	5	40/3
8	3	43/3
9	5	48/3
10	7	55/3
11	0	55/4
12	2	57/4
13	7	64/4
14	7	71/4
15	3	74/6
16	6	80/7
17	7	87/7
18	6	93/8
19	4	97/9
20	4	101/10

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