PakistanversusSouth Africa

13 Dec 2024 · T20

Centurion Park · Venue photograph

Recorded result

South Africa won by 7 wickets

Pakistan20.0 overs206/5 South Africa19.3 overs210/3 Centurion Park ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

South Africa more likely to win

39%Pakistan61%South Africa

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, South Africa rate stronger than Pakistan (1,596 vs 1,505 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Pakistan won 7 and South Africa won 3
South Africa are playing at home in South Africa

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Pakistan started on 37%; Pakistan batted first.

Pakistan’s chance of winning (%) · South Africa is the rest

Pakistan's chances ranged from 4% to 86% during the match (South Africa: 14% to 97%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 1.2: Jahandad Khan to RD Rickelton, RD Rickelton out. Pakistan up from 67% to 77%.
2nd inns 3.6: Jahandad Khan to MP Breetzke, MP Breetzke out. Pakistan up from 74% to 85%.
2nd inns 18.6: Haris Rauf to HE van der Dussen, six by HE van der Dussen. South Africa up from 80% to 95%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Pakistan206/5 South Africa210/3

Innings 1

Pakistan

206/520.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Pakistan batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Mohammad Rizwancaught · HE van der Dussen · Ottniel Baartman 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · HE van der Dussen · b Ottniel Baartman	11	13	1	0	84.62
Saim Ayubnot out 11 fours · 5 sixes	not out	98*	57	11	5	171.93
Mohammad Babar Azamcaught · Donavon Ferreira · George Linde 3 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Donavon Ferreira · b George Linde	31	20	3	1	155.00
Usman Khancaught · Kwena Maphaka · Dayyaan Galiem 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Kwena Maphaka · b Dayyaan Galiem	3

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Dayyaan Galiem0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	21	2	5.25	3	0
Kwena Maphaka0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls	3.0	41	0	13.67	2	1
Donavon Ferreira0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	37	0	12.33	5	0
Ottniel Baartman0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	51	2	12.75	5	0
Nqaba Peter0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	28	0	14.00	0	0
George Linde0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	28	1	7.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	3	3/0
2	5	8/0
3	6	14/0
4	10	24/1
5	14	38/1
6	7	45/1
7	6	51/1
8	15	66/1
9	17	83/1
10	7	90/1
11	13	103/1
12	7	110/2
13	5	115/3
14	7	122/3
15	7	129/4
16	7	136/4
17	22	158/4
18	19	177/4
19	14	191/4
20	15	206/5

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