Northern DiamondsversusSouth East Stars

31 May 2024 · T20

Riverside Ground, Chester-le-Street · Venue photograph

Recorded result

South East Stars won by 6 wickets

Northern Diamonds19.3 overs124/10 South East Stars16.0 overs127/4 Riverside Ground, Chester-le-Street ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Northern Diamonds started on 40%; Northern Diamonds batted first.

Northern Diamonds’s chance of winning (%) · South East Stars is the rest

Northern Diamonds's chances ranged from 0% to 64% during the match (South East Stars: 36% to 100%).

Biggest swings

12.5: D Gregory to L Winfield-Hill, L Winfield-Hill out. South East Stars up from 37% to 42%.
13.5: SIR Dunkley to L Dobson, L Dobson out. South East Stars up from 42% to 47%.
2nd inns 5.2: R Slater to SIR Dunkley, SIR Dunkley out. Northern Diamonds up from 10% to 15%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Northern Diamonds124/10 South East Stars127/4

Innings 1