ScotlandversusNew Zealand

23 Jun 2026 · T20

County Ground, Bristol · Venue photograph

Recorded result

New Zealand won by 6 wickets

Scotland20.0 overs131/7 New Zealand18.2 overs132/4 County Ground, Bristol ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Scotland more likely to win

61%Scotland39%New Zealand

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Scotland rate stronger than New Zealand (1,679 vs 1,606 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Scotland started on 58%; Scotland batted first.

Scotland’s chance of winning (%) · New Zealand is the rest

Scotland's chances ranged from 0% to 74% during the match (New Zealand: 26% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 1.1: KE Bryce to AC Kerr, AC Kerr out. Scotland up from 38% to 49%.
2nd inns 4.2: KE Bryce to IC Gaze, IC Gaze out. Scotland up from 42% to 56%.
2nd inns 5.1: R Slater to SFM Devine, SFM Devine out. Scotland up from 52% to 66%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Scotland131/7 New Zealand132/4

Innings 1

Scotland

131/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Scotland batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Darcey Carternot out 8 fours · 1 sixes	not out	72*	52	8	1	138.46
Katherine Frasercaught · Suzie Bates · Lea Tahuhu 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Suzie Bates · b Lea Tahuhu	7	17	0	0	41.18
Kathryn Brycecaught · Izzy Sharp · Amelia Kerr 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Izzy Sharp · b Amelia Kerr	5	7	1	0	71.43
Sarah Brycelbw · Sophie Devine 3 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Sophie Devine	25	22	3	0	113.64
Ailsa Listercaught · Amelia Kerr · Sophie Devine 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Amelia Kerr · b Sophie Devine	2	4	0	0	50.00

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Lea Tahuhu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	19	1	6.33	0
Bree Illing0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	17	0	5.67	1
Jess Kerr0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	32	0	10.67	1
Nensi Patel0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	25	1	6.25	1
Amelia Kerr1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	17	3	4.25	0
Sophie Devine0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	19	2	6.33	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	5	5/0
2	3	8/0
3	9	17/0
4	10	27/0
5	14	41/0
6	4	45/0
7	6	51/0
8	4	55/1
9	3	58/2
10	5	63/2
11	4	67/2
12	10	77/2
13	8	85/2
14	11	96/2
15	2	98/4
16	4	102/5
17	7	109/5
18	12	121/5
19	0	121/7
20	10	131/7

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